UFC · resolved market
Sedriques Dumas vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x773c1c4008d5ecde1c318bf4bf200b3d7513ba42032bf8795478e59a960d9d2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oleksiejczukof Dumas, Oleksiejczuk
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Oleksiejczuk | 64c | 22,926$14,652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,273.62 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef38…ae8cbacked Dumas | 37c | 16,445$6,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,075.58 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…964dbacked Dumas | 43c | 10,748$4,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,661.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdecc…9d36backed Dumas | 40c | 2,510$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Oleksiejczuk | 46c | 2,317$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,246.28 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…caefbacked Dumas | 35c | 2,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Dumas | 36c | 1,665$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.3 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Oleksiejczuk | 64c | 1,276$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.93 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Oleksiejczuk | 64c | 1,076$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.02 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75aa…58f1backed Dumas | 37c | 1,027$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Dumas | 35c | 1,019$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.96 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3eb…e855backed Dumas | 36c | 1,003$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.99 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Oleksiejczuk | 62c | 926.73$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.49 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476a…76bdbacked Oleksiejczuk | 65c | 855.23$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.23 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Dumas | 38c | 800$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.75 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Oleksiejczuk | 66c | 761.48$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.48 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9f…e9cdbacked Oleksiejczuk | 64c | 700$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Oleksiejczuk | 62c | 635.99$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.68 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Oleksiejczuk | 16c | 582.93$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.35 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +272.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Oleksiejczuk | 64c | 556$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.16 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Oleksiejczuk | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Dumas | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Dumas | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa47b…bae9backed Dumas | 37c | 459.46$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Dumas | 9c | 418$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 61 | 9.8%6 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Oleksiejczuk | 65c | 376.95$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.66 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…00c5backed Oleksiejczuk | 62c | 355.05$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.92 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Oleksiejczuk | 62c | 308.41$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.42 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Oleksiejczuk | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 248 | 62.5%155 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Oleksiejczuk | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Dumas | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Oleksiejczuk | 64c | 250$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa812…9c13backed Dumas | 36c | 250$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Oleksiejczuk | 63c | 250$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x128d…e2e7backed Dumas | 37c | 216.22$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Oleksiejczuk | 62c | 215.78$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.04 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Oleksiejczuk | 62c | 202.16$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.88 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Oleksiejczuk | 62c | 189$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.88 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b2…aa53backed Dumas | 37c | 181.08$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Oleksiejczuk | 63c | 168.42$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.33 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Oleksiejczuk | 64c | 159.76$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.07 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Oleksiejczuk | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf725…136abacked Dumas | 37c | 151.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.13 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Oleksiejczuk | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.21 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x465e…bf90backed Oleksiejczuk | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Oleksiejczuk | 64c | 140.17$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.17 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Dumas | 36c | 137$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Oleksiejczuk | 64c | 119.37$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.97 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…387abacked Dumas | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.35per pick | 45cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca86…4002backed Dumas | 37c | 105.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Oleksiejczuk | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Dumas | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…e7debacked Dumas | 37c | 85.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed Oleksiejczuk | 66c | 78.48$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf92e…e6e0backed Dumas | 37c | 77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ba…dc95backed Dumas | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705f…8814backed Oleksiejczuk | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 64cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ce48backed Dumas | 37c | 61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Oleksiejczuk | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 223 | 34.1%76 W · 147 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d75…edccbacked Oleksiejczuk | 64c | 46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Dumas | 36c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9789…21d1backed Dumas | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d68…caf0backed Oleksiejczuk | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438f…6af2backed Oleksiejczuk | 64c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb82…b893backed Oleksiejczuk | 64c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Oleksiejczuk | 68c | 33.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Dumas | 36c | 32.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Oleksiejczuk | 63c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…9c14backed Oleksiejczuk | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Oleksiejczuk | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a56…695bbacked Oleksiejczuk | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eeb…dc1abacked Oleksiejczuk | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…bc49backed Oleksiejczuk | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sedriques Dumas vs. Michal Oleksiejczukthis page
- Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego LopesVolkanovski won
- Bryce Mitchell vs. Jean SilvaSilva won
- Dan Ige vs. Sean WoodsonIge won
- Darren Elkins vs. Julian ErosaErosa won
- Jim Miller vs. Chase HooperHooper won
- Michael Chandler vs. Paddy PimblettPimblett won
- Nikita Krylov vs. Dominick ReyesReyes won
- Nora Cornolle vs. Hailey CowanCornolle won
- Sumudaerji vs. Mitch RaposoMudaerji won
- Tresean Gore vs. Marco TulioTulio won
- Yair Rodriguez vs. Patricio PitbullRodriguez won
- Yan Xiaonan vs. Virna JandirobaJandiroba won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.