TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Yan Xiaonan vs. Virna Jandiroba

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Jandirobaof Xiaonan, Jandiroba
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,627
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$44,734

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,627 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9137…5ebfbacked Xiaonan44c14,018$6,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,125.511533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7245…f1c3backed Jandiroba58c5,172$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,172.41966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Xiaonan43c3,363$1,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,460.3354056.7%306 W · 234 L-1.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01ba…b77abacked Jandiroba56c3,000$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,319.9822259.5%132 W · 90 L+15.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Xiaonan44c1,714$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.6714751%75 W · 72 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Xiaonan22c1,700$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.0423537%87 W · 148 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5a2…6a88backed Xiaonan45c1,619$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.461952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-14.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Jandiroba55c1,481$817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.1416247.5%77 W · 85 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb925…0f4abacked Jandiroba57c1,439$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.775335.8%19 W · 34 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Jandiroba55c1,257$691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.714067.5%27 W · 13 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick57cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Xiaonan1c1,177$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.531012%2 W · 99 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Jandiroba57c1,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4306248.4%30 W · 32 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Xiaonan45c1,000$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.9835539.4%140 W · 215 L-19.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Jandiroba54c999.94$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.976349.2%31 W · 32 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+27.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Jandiroba55c990$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.518560%111 W · 74 L+0.9wins0.00per pick60cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Jandiroba55c903.09$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.3921044.8%94 W · 116 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Jandiroba57c850$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3692857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x70f8…d0d5backed Xiaonan55c821.2$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.754151.2%21 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Xiaonan44c795.45$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35020954.1%113 W · 96 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Jandiroba55c727.27$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.2735764.7%231 W · 126 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed Xiaonan11c726$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.86619.8%6 W · 55 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Jandiroba57c700$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30139959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x75aa…58f1backed Xiaonan45c667.67$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.42638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x020b…d13cbacked Xiaonan44c625.44$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.19366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+39.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Xiaonan5c621.2$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.066451.6%33 W · 31 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Jandiroba66c567.54$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.8521554.4%117 W · 98 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Jandiroba58c501.36$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.1818038.9%70 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad25…7678backed Jandiroba55c500$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22511844.1%52 W · 66 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed Jandiroba57c500$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21512159.5%72 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Xiaonan44c406.34$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.7918453.8%99 W · 85 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e87…8befbacked Jandiroba56c360.3$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.36352.4%33 W · 30 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe658…072bbacked Jandiroba56c357.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.141346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ea5…2af9backed Jandiroba56c357.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.145754.4%31 W · 26 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf725…136abacked Jandiroba55c353.95$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.743754.1%20 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x975b…2d5fbacked Xiaonan8c300$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2414129.8%42 W · 99 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked Xiaonan32c300$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9526552.1%138 W · 127 L+23.9wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+17.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd353…f6acbacked Jandiroba56c300$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13225251.2%129 W · 123 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ced…b02bbacked Xiaonan48c291.94$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.07837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick63cpaid-41.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Jandiroba56c230$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.248749.1%239 W · 248 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Xiaonan44c227.97$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.314833.3%16 W · 32 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe545…a68cbacked Xiaonan44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014130.5%43 W · 98 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab43…f7b3backed Xiaonan44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016058.8%94 W · 66 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5c4…c82cbacked Xiaonan44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Xiaonan40c226.59$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.8237854.8%207 W · 171 L+20.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5037…a863backed Xiaonan45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011054.5%60 W · 50 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x54b5…2e90backed Jandiroba57c215.3$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.812548%12 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8152…618cbacked Xiaonan44c214$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.23955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Jandiroba56c210$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.4414355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Xiaonan45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909124.2%22 W · 69 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-32.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Jandiroba55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9013041.5%54 W · 76 L-9.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x931f…d15dbacked Jandiroba56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.575954.2%32 W · 27 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x56c4…aa59backed Jandiroba57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.44366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd9d…c74bbacked Jandiroba55c173.33$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57b9…7726backed Xiaonan46c160$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.6156.7%1 W · 14 L-7.4wins-0.49per pick56cpaid-90.6%equal weight29-0.18 edge/pick
0xf00f…711abacked Jandiroba59c158.46$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.972157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd55c…34febacked Jandiroba62c153.8$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.445858.6%34 W · 24 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1f0…e173backed Xiaonan38c150.01$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.885536.4%20 W · 35 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b2…aa53backed Xiaonan46c145.65$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672060%12 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc66b…850cbacked Xiaonan45c133.69$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ad1…8c20backed Jandiroba56c130.78$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.597856.4%44 W · 34 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd94…0b01backed Jandiroba55c120$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546946.4%32 W · 37 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb33b…41f2backed Xiaonan39c120$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.830%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xad8c…8cc3backed Xiaonan45c108$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.69352.7%49 W · 44 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ea…810abacked Jandiroba55c107$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.156245.2%28 W · 34 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19cb…e5d4backed Xiaonan46c106.52$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4cd4…ce48backed Xiaonan46c106.26$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.881729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.8wins-0.22per pick52cpaid-50.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Jandiroba54c105$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4833948.1%163 W · 176 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Jandiroba56c103.14$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.3824649.6%122 W · 124 L+14.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked Xiaonan45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4528743.9%126 W · 161 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb34…59eabacked Jandiroba56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4413044.6%58 W · 72 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Jandiroba56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445433.3%18 W · 36 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-21.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Jandiroba55c91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9533253.3%177 W · 155 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fbc…f97bbacked Xiaonan45c91$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.65850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Jandiroba55c90$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.0610439.4%41 W · 63 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd04a…824ebacked Xiaonan46c86.96$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick35cpaid-51.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x60ff…5ec3backed Jandiroba56c85.71$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.7110040%40 W · 60 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9d7…25e9backed Xiaonan42c76.5$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.491546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick59cpaid-34%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6650…d38ebacked Xiaonan44c71.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.683053.3%16 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x705f…8814backed Jandiroba57c70.18$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.181090%9 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick64cpaid+41.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4e96…45a2backed Xiaonan46c64.48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.662263.6%14 W · 8 L+4.0wins+0.18per pick46cpaid+49%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x602d…3534backed Jandiroba56c62.5$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.54763.8%30 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4001…8cffbacked Xiaonan43c62.42$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.841833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Jandiroba51c52.14$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5911540%46 W · 69 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf41c…c9b3backed Xiaonan45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.59737.1%36 W · 61 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b19…ac2ebacked Xiaonan41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.53132.3%10 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x77d6…4fd2backed Jandiroba56c46.43$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.435648.2%27 W · 29 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc970…a19bbacked Xiaonan47c42.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cf8…843abacked Xiaonan39c38.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152544%11 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7bf…7336backed Xiaonan46c31$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.15650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c8c…9101backed Xiaonan46c22$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.121346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xafb7…75f4backed Jandiroba56c19.64$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.647655.3%42 W · 34 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.