UFC · resolved market
Sumudaerji vs. Mitch Raposo
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee407084d4ef4b84ed2ee697c600a02729f8540bd2b0ee0ae77f1511622fe1fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mudaerjiof Mudaerji, Raposo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $151,513
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $157,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,513 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20db…63ccbacked Mudaerji | 66c | 56,544$37,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,224.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af5…dbf3backed Raposo | 34c | 56,544$19,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,224.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9137…5ebfbacked Raposo | 43c | 9,292$4,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,016.34 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef38…ae8cbacked Mudaerji | 56c | 6,000$3,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,639.99 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…d18bbacked Mudaerji | 55c | 2,666$1,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,199.7 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Raposo | 42c | 2,500$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.87 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Mudaerji | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Raposo | 44c | 2,000$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Mudaerji | 56c | 1,646$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.21 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Mudaerji | 60c | 1,500$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c29…5267backed Raposo | 43c | 1,240$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7245…f1c3backed Mudaerji | 57c | 1,200$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefab…6277backed Mudaerji | 61c | 1,033$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Raposo | 46c | 1,032$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 355 | 64.5%229 W · 126 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7384…1ebdbacked Mudaerji | 80c | 1,011$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.92 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -68%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3eb…e855backed Raposo | 42c | 1,003$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…a5d4backed Mudaerji | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 58 | 70.7%41 W · 17 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a5…834bbacked Raposo | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa94e…c540backed Raposo | 43c | 975$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c2…6d37backed Raposo | 43c | 905$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Mudaerji | 57c | 850$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.5 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Raposo | 43c | 828.58$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.29 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Mudaerji | 60c | 750$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75aa…58f1backed Raposo | 48c | 746.41$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb160…812bbacked Mudaerji | 57c | 740$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c40…f59bbacked Mudaerji | 57c | 685$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Raposo | 44c | 680$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.2 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Raposo | 39c | 647.53$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.14 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Mudaerji | 57c | 601.31$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.04 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fe…3418backed Mudaerji | 57c | 590$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Mudaerji | 52c | 579.52$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.55 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…f004backed Raposo | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 209 | 54.1%113 W · 96 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6f…6846backed Mudaerji | 57c | 410$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Mudaerji | 77c | 400$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Raposo | 40c | 355.65$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.89 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Mudaerji | 55c | 333.27$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.43 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Raposo | 45c | 318$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.85 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520a…ab8abacked Raposo | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf725…136abacked Mudaerji | 58c | 258.62$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.62 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Mudaerji | 53c | 251.05$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.94 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Raposo | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Mudaerji | 55c | 214$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.34 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Mudaerji | 55c | 214$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.34 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Raposo | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Mudaerji | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Mudaerji | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c3…2060backed Mudaerji | 57c | 190$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9f…e9cdbacked Raposo | 45c | 182$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…1a2dbacked Mudaerji | 57c | 180$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Mudaerji | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a2…6a88backed Mudaerji | 59c | 168$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.88 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Mudaerji | 57c | 150$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Mudaerji | 56c | 150$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…7726backed Raposo | 43c | 150$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -7.4wins | -0.49per pick | 56cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…0b01backed Raposo | 42c | 150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Mudaerji | 57c | 145$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.35 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Raposo | 28c | 141.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…a6c3backed Mudaerji | 57c | 135$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Mudaerji | 56c | 112.22$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.84 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Mudaerji | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Raposo | 37c | 92.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Mudaerji | 56c | 85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1a…3292backed Raposo | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x705f…8814backed Mudaerji | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 64cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x617d…6c9cbacked Mudaerji | 61c | 63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ea…a4b6backed Mudaerji | 59c | 50.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ce48backed Mudaerji | 58c | 39.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Mudaerji | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b8…4d0bbacked Mudaerji | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Mudaerji | 60c | 34.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26f9…8b7ebacked Raposo | 40c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…523fbacked Raposo | 43c | 32.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Mudaerji | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x997e…4979backed Raposo | 40c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…bc49backed Raposo | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…618cbacked Mudaerji | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Mudaerji | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 520 | 52.9%275 W · 245 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…9c14backed Mudaerji | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sumudaerji vs. Mitch Raposothis page
- Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego LopesVolkanovski won
- Bryce Mitchell vs. Jean SilvaSilva won
- Dan Ige vs. Sean WoodsonIge won
- Darren Elkins vs. Julian ErosaErosa won
- Jim Miller vs. Chase HooperHooper won
- Michael Chandler vs. Paddy PimblettPimblett won
- Nikita Krylov vs. Dominick ReyesReyes won
- Nora Cornolle vs. Hailey CowanCornolle won
- Sedriques Dumas vs. Michal OleksiejczukOleksiejczuk won
- Tresean Gore vs. Marco TulioTulio won
- Yair Rodriguez vs. Patricio PitbullRodriguez won
- Yan Xiaonan vs. Virna JandirobaJandiroba won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.