UFC · resolved market

Jim Miller vs. Chase Hooper

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39f9f50fb1c8b7775ac8b0a2442f87a39d2bb021c592c01a51322be658dd5e46

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Hooperof Miller, Hooper
Resolved: Apr 12, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $71,193
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $74,420

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,193 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in UFC
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb5da…c8afbacked Miller	14c	15,786$2,253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,252.74	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9716…378abacked Miller	13c	10,000$1,300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,300	49	34.7%17 W · 32 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9137…5ebfbacked Miller	14c	5,396$732 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$731.67	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad25…7678backed Miller	13c	5,000$655 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$655	118	44.1%52 W · 66 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7455…93adbacked Miller	19c	3,473$666 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$665.92	195	31.8%62 W · 133 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Miller	13c	1,866$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.49	48	33.3%16 W · 32 L	-3.2wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x75aa…58f1backed Miller	13c	1,846$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	26	38.5%10 W · 16 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf35f…c62abacked Hooper	80c	1,736$1,382 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$353.41	28	60.7%17 W · 11 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	58cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x975b…2d5fbacked Miller	14c	1,500$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	141	29.8%42 W · 99 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-27%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c29…5267backed Miller	14c	1,286$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.04	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+46%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x99b4…f541backed Miller	16c	1,105$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Miller	13c	1,000$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	355	39.4%140 W · 215 L	-19.1wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Miller	14c	999.98$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	76	46.1%35 W · 41 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Miller	16c	928.57$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.83	298	48.7%145 W · 153 L	-10.7wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe545…a68cbacked Miller	17c	893.46$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	141	30.5%43 W · 98 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Miller	28c	807.25$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.58	64	51.6%33 W · 31 L	+4.3wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb925…0f4abacked Miller	13c	770$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.1	53	35.8%19 W · 34 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Miller	15c	749$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.84	325	45.2%147 W · 178 L	-5.9wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43e1…535ebacked Miller	17c	664.52$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.83	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+1.4wins	+0.11per pick	58cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Miller	12c	638.47$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.62	160	49.4%79 W · 81 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Miller	13c	417.21$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.14	28	57.1%16 W · 12 L	+2.1wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc38…e7c2backed Miller	17c	377.51$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	126	39.7%50 W · 76 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-10%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Hooper	74c	371.69$274 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.13	377	54.6%206 W · 171 L	+19.6wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Miller	14c	352.53$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.73	59	45.8%27 W · 32 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dbe…e998backed Miller	14c	346.13$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	25cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Miller	9c	330.6$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	91	24.2%22 W · 69 L	-5.3wins	-0.06per pick	30cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa7dd…1e23backed Miller	17c	301.63$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	105	29.5%31 W · 74 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Miller	16c	300$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	66	50%33 W · 33 L	+4.9wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb2da…f8b9backed Miller	13c	274.26$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.68	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Miller	9c	271.35$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.43	210	31.9%67 W · 143 L	-7.4wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Miller	16c	250$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	54	33.3%18 W · 36 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe65b…387abacked Miller	13c	222.85$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.97	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-3.5wins	-0.35per pick	45cpaid	-86.5%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd20f…abc1backed Miller	24c	204.98$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Miller	20c	200$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	73	43.8%32 W · 41 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd55c…34febacked Hooper	76c	164.47$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.47	58	58.6%34 W · 24 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8611…8f64backed Miller	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+1.2wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+41.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Miller	11c	119.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	101	2%2 W · 99 L	-4.1wins	-0.04per pick	6cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0542…20ebbacked Miller	13c	107.69$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.3wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xad8c…8cc3backed Miller	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	93	52.7%49 W · 44 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7384…1ebdbacked Miller	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	26cpaid	-68%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Miller	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	79	21.5%17 W · 62 L	-5.9wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Miller	13c	99.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	367	45.8%168 W · 199 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x583b…2ef1backed Miller	16c	94.5$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c59…b37fbacked Miller	12c	91.43$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Hooper	79c	37.97$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.97	564	50.5%285 W · 279 L	+6.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3eeb…dc1abacked Hooper	68c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.4	33	57.6%19 W · 14 L	+3.0wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Jim Miller vs. Chase Hooperthis page
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego LopesVolkanovski won
Bryce Mitchell vs. Jean SilvaSilva won
Dan Ige vs. Sean WoodsonIge won
Darren Elkins vs. Julian ErosaErosa won
Michael Chandler vs. Paddy PimblettPimblett won
Nikita Krylov vs. Dominick ReyesReyes won
Nora Cornolle vs. Hailey CowanCornolle won
Sedriques Dumas vs. Michal OleksiejczukOleksiejczuk won
Sumudaerji vs. Mitch RaposoMudaerji won
Tresean Gore vs. Marco TulioTulio won
Yair Rodriguez vs. Patricio PitbullRodriguez won
Yan Xiaonan vs. Virna JandirobaJandiroba won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Jim Miller vs. Chase Hooper

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event