Movies · resolved market
Will Kylie Jenner attend the Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6dce7f95651f74a363fc6b873001502a9baed91b75e359c08f3a82ca733b1fdb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,189
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,273
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,189 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 0c | 7,476$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa112…d215backed No | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed No | 20c | 337.3$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.87 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e1…072cbacked No | 65c | 264.97$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Yes | 42c | 236.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ec…b881backed No | 66c | 228.66$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8f…162cbacked No | 40c | 212.38$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x002c…cbc2backed No | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1936…e89cbacked No | 13c | 192.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf215…9114backed Yes | 39c | 189.51$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 57c | 188$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.77 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc45…13bdbacked No | 11c | 181.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccb…0a10backed No | 59c | 146.91$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…3a31backed No | 24c | 135.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 27c | 110$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed No | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa414…d03dbacked No | 26c | 78.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked No | 20c | 73.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked No | 58c | 60.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bba…08a5backed No | 39c | 50.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed Yes | 53c | 50.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a6…791cbacked No | 55c | 39.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Yes | 72c | 36.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfed9…2dc6backed Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6797…42fbbacked Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x761b…e8f7backed Yes | 60c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3696…c332backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee5…68d2backed Yes | 74c | 19.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…a7bfbacked Yes | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kylie Jenner attend the Oscars?this page
- Will Blake Lively attend the Oscars?No won
- Will Donald Trump attend the Oscars?No won
- Will Elon Musk attend the Oscars?No won
- Will Kanye West attend the Oscars?No won
- Will Ryan Reynolds attend the Oscars?No won
- Will Taylor Swift attend the Oscars?No won
- Will Travis Kelce attend the Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.