Movies · resolved market
Will Ryan Reynolds attend the Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a766050c59560f6b1bac1d0ac0b51ceabdb7668de77541a0019ee8bb625c3ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,991
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,771
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,991 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd769…0f06backed Yes | 25c | 1,834$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 27cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf139…d858backed No | 75c | 1,579$1,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed No | 69c | 547.1$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.09 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 9c | 409.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Yes | 34c | 292.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 14c | 289.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3212…450abacked No | 75c | 128$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f2…1153backed No | 75c | 127$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c7…de48backed No | 61c | 123.34$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.9 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +89%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 39c | 115$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.95 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x794d…020bbacked Yes | 27c | 94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes | 56c | 80.39$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3285…0791backed No | 74c | 75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 64c | 66.35$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bcf…2948backed Yes | 19c | 64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa507…580ebacked Yes | 30c | 59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Yes | 45c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 71c | 47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x002c…cbc2backed Yes | 65c | 46.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8954…b019backed No | 70c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f4…0ec0backed No | 50c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c49…ce7fbacked Yes | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a6…791cbacked Yes | 33c | 39.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a7…7423backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…4b87backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c99…ed35backed No | 73c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 73cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9f…c398backed No | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1a…368cbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabe5…b6adbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfd…721cbacked No | 70c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ryan Reynolds attend the Oscars?this page
- Will Blake Lively attend the Oscars?No won
- Will Donald Trump attend the Oscars?No won
- Will Elon Musk attend the Oscars?No won
- Will Kanye West attend the Oscars?No won
- Will Kylie Jenner attend the Oscars?Yes won
- Will Taylor Swift attend the Oscars?No won
- Will Travis Kelce attend the Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.