Movies · resolved market
Will Blake Lively attend the Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c4773c1fb339c68c9d69dc7a3313ce316dadf0db6ab08eb58e01e9a0f916710
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $811
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 35c | 80$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d8…3484backed Yes | 61c | 65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa9…f816backed Yes | 33c | 57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd788…1b2abacked Yes | 33c | 52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa7…5455backed No | 46c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e72…fcc6backed No | 59c | 37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb808…3710backed Yes | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6152…78bfbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x002c…cbc2backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…f665backed Yes | 41c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0897…6bd3backed No | 67c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0f…1e24backed No | 59c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…b340backed No | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…c2f8backed No | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes | 71c | 21.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 39cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c7…de48backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +89%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3180…89b4backed No | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Blake Lively attend the Oscars?this page
- Will Donald Trump attend the Oscars?No won
- Will Elon Musk attend the Oscars?No won
- Will Kanye West attend the Oscars?No won
- Will Kylie Jenner attend the Oscars?Yes won
- Will Ryan Reynolds attend the Oscars?No won
- Will Taylor Swift attend the Oscars?No won
- Will Travis Kelce attend the Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.