Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 74-75°F on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1eef1308a5d9c527f0c0eb1320d10fbb1298c2cf2de55ffe4f4b0654dd7c724
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,487
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,487 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4480…b56dbacked Yes | 8c | 4,112$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,657$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.19 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 1,099$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 83 | 3.6%3 W · 80 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5177…93c9backed Yes | 24c | 523.39$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.38 | 77 | 16.9%13 W · 64 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed No | 80c | 382.82$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.83 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 37c | 344.74$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.07 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed No | 51c | 220$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.2 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe26f…8cf4backed Yes | 8c | 211.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +7.9wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5014…953cbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7009…b6dcbacked Yes | 42c | 189.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 53c | 188.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | -14.8wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…dd70backed Yes | 56c | 178.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 170 | 40%68 W · 102 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…ea03backed No | 54c | 174.96$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.22 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 63c | 135.53$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.59 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 58c | 129$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.05 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +5.9wins | +0.20per pick | 31cpaid | +258.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 17c | 122.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +9.9wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 31c | 122.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…e730backed No | 79c | 110$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 186 | 40.3%75 W · 111 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf34a…1e22backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…94d6backed No | 62c | 97.22$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 110 | 34.5%38 W · 72 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…cc33backed No | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdff1…de19backed Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 194 | 8.2%16 W · 178 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked Yes | 16c | 69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcafb…05f0backed No | 78c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…f0c4backed Yes | 56c | 53.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d0…091cbacked Yes | 25c | 52.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 28c | 51.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 26c | 51.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x509c…e581backed Yes | 60c | 50.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x406c…2da5backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacfd…5374backed No | 61c | 47.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc661…47abbacked Yes | 48c | 42.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…09ddbacked Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 52c | 22.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x761b…e8f7backed No | 63c | 18.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 74-75°F on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 72-73°F on May 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 76-77°F on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.