Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump's 538 approval rating be between 47.5% and 47.9% on February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4165b7d2feae3426d359f740fadf1c62812baf5e36356fbbc38a2d3323394cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,921
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 75c | 1,498$1,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.71 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 70c | 899.96$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.08 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83e2…ce08backed Yes | 61c | 671.25$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.84 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 26c | 577.27$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.05 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 36c | 528.65$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.55 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c28…c921backed No | 53c | 330$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 21c | 313.25$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.47 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 47c | 265.46$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.63 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…3ce1backed Yes | 22c | 230$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2c…dc30backed Yes | 57c | 226.3$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.13 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 79c | 205$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c3…cdb3backed Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x311a…b58cbacked Yes | 22c | 197.45$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x562d…1fbdbacked No | 53c | 190$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa361…2de3backed Yes | 47c | 190$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…dc41backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3571…d751backed No | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba1…3dbebacked Yes | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 34c | 142.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.91 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…9603backed Yes | 47c | 140$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c32…c380backed No | 53c | 140$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…c6c4backed Yes | 19c | 136$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.16 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…f217backed Yes | 47c | 130$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec4a…b4b3backed Yes | 47c | 130$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e4…339bbacked Yes | 47c | 130$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa28c…30c7backed No | 53c | 130$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffe…6d93backed No | 53c | 130$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9908…f84ebacked No | 32c | 127$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 125.3$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.46 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27e6…632bbacked No | 9c | 125$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x029d…0ec4backed No | 12c | 124$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 39c | 123.65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.46 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8e…1805backed Yes | 47c | 120$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefd7…d5cabacked No | 53c | 120$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17fa…7c42backed Yes | 47c | 120$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…9de8backed No | 53c | 120$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…4ca5backed Yes | 47c | 115$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…71a6backed No | 53c | 115$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 54c | 114.82$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.49 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 58c | 108.16$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.31 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66a3…a519backed Yes | 47c | 105$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd952…b7f3backed No | 53c | 105$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdccc…3ac3backed Yes | 73c | 102.82$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaef7…5ccbbacked Yes | 60c | 101.48$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47b9…33dbbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adf…a1f6backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…4fc5backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x380f…22f3backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8347…94ccbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe4…fb1dbacked Yes | 47c | 95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…5a38backed No | 53c | 95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe865…baaebacked No | 19c | 94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…5a92backed Yes | 68c | 91$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e20…cf33backed No | 53c | 75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11bc…5c5fbacked Yes | 47c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 37c | 72.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 141 | 25.5%36 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3a…8938backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed Yes | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 74 | 75.7%56 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3059…e806backed Yes | 47c | 57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…a8babacked No | 53c | 57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.13 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed Yes | 19c | 52.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6906…9995backed Yes | 21c | 52.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.27 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x40af…0aa6backed Yes | 20c | 51.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b0…8512backed Yes | 79c | 50.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf9…f43bbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…c512backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5805…63d0backed No | 50c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked No | 80c | 27.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c4…a19dbacked Yes | 63c | 21.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa58…48afbacked Yes | 50c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 66c | 15.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x761b…e8f7backed Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump's 538 approval rating be between 47.5% and 47.9% on February 28?this page
- Will Trump's 538 approval rating be 49.5% or higher on February 28?No won
- Will Trump's 538 approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on February 28?No won
- Will Trump's 538 approval rating be between 48.5% and 48.9% on February 28?No won
- Will Trump's 538 approval rating be between 49.0% and 49.4% on February 28?No won
- Will Trump's 538 approval rating be less than 47.5% on February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.