Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump's 538 approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95eba26c144e3ea5a290ff5475ae2c2118f47b56683157ff159ec994a5d89b55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $192,635
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $191,167
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $192,635 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd228…997bbacked Yes | 37c | 90,412$33,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,452.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +667.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…190bbacked No | 63c | 90,412$56,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,452.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Yes | 31c | 802.26$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 69c | 752.68$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.08 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 8c | 565$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 14c | 503.42$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.98 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 8c | 380$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 41c | 378.44$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.28 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed6…6a8dbacked Yes | 30c | 312.52$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.76 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 23c | 265.46$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.23 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b93…ecf5backed Yes | 9c | 236$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…c6c4backed Yes | 32c | 226$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.64 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 36c | 220$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.6 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x428a…dfebbacked Yes | 8c | 219$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a45…cf97backed Yes | 8c | 210$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…aee5backed Yes | 36c | 200$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd0…a167backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 63c | 190$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.3 | 141 | 25.5%36 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf678…8b82backed Yes | 7c | 189$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 38c | 180$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.7 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x899c…e468backed Yes | 9c | 166$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb437…f6febacked Yes | 34c | 132.52$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6171…8f99backed Yes | 39c | 130$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a19…5c13backed No | 61c | 130$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6349…c2f2backed No | 61c | 120$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd7…66adbacked Yes | 39c | 120$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 38c | 110.07$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.33 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 35c | 110$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a85…d980backed No | 61c | 110$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc4…01b1backed Yes | 39c | 110$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718a…1496backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe80…afe8backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb835…683bbacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 25c | 95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 60c | 94.13$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf423…0ff4backed Yes | 39c | 90$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe45…7986backed No | 61c | 90$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…1544backed Yes | 39c | 90$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf76e…f89bbacked No | 61c | 90$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3a…8938backed No | 61c | 87.34$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x339d…817abacked Yes | 39c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc4…63cebacked No | 61c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x824b…f9f8backed Yes | 39c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17fa…7c42backed No | 61c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfe…9213backed Yes | 16c | 69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 61c | 61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaef7…5ccbbacked Yes | 30c | 55.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf9…f43bbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d37…a0b2backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd764…cd5abacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0875…511cbacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 39.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump's 538 approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on February 28?this page
- Will Trump's 538 approval rating be 49.5% or higher on February 28?No won
- Will Trump's 538 approval rating be between 47.5% and 47.9% on February 28?Yes won
- Will Trump's 538 approval rating be between 48.5% and 48.9% on February 28?No won
- Will Trump's 538 approval rating be between 49.0% and 49.4% on February 28?No won
- Will Trump's 538 approval rating be less than 47.5% on February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.