Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 63-64°F on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71850cad345dc84e8a6f6a48b0c73be1d0017c37d003777d18397f6df3b5858c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,067
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,067 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 9,998$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.26 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 13c | 5,414$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.79 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7e…fcdfbacked No | 45c | 1,269$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.25 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +14.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…dd70backed Yes | 52c | 191.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 170 | 40%68 W · 102 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…56f6backed Yes | 61c | 162.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 49c | 129.88$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.86 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 70c | 110.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.72 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…f0c4backed Yes | 46c | 109.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 47c | 104.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 21c | 102.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f70…00e9backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 39c | 80$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 37c | 71.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 356 | 27%96 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 66.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133f…0792backed Yes | 41c | 59.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…16bdbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73af…46e0backed Yes | 37c | 49.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 41c | 35.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe438…88dabacked Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…c4d1backed No | 58c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3af3…75ebbacked Yes | 74c | 20.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b4…5aabbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.34per pick | 46cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x761b…e8f7backed No | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 63-64°F on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 60°F or below on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 71°F or higher on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 61-62°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 65-66°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 67-68°F on May 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 69-70°F on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.