NFL · resolved market
Will the Las Vegas Raiders finish with the worst record in the NFL?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x012c20b8f149f0d846cdff44004659bcac4a26935b382ab89b47f51c489ece4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 23c | 2,500$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.01 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed No | 77c | 2,332$1,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.67 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 21c | 1,173$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.27 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5e…c869backed No | 80c | 910$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.19 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Yes | 14c | 739.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.46 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -12.6wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3831…c9bfbacked Yes | 24c | 715.07$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.62 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcefa…bef8backed Yes | 22c | 711.29$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.2 | 162 | 59.9%97 W · 65 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 5c | 495.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 77 | 18.2%14 W · 63 L | -11.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x83e2…ce08backed Yes | 26c | 389$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.14 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 5c | 361.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 17c | 245.29$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 153 | 32%49 W · 104 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d7…c5afbacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 11c | 183.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 12c | 142.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…da06backed Yes | 16c | 114.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x761b…e8f7backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Las Vegas Raiders finish with the worst record in the NFL?this page
- Will the Carolina Panthers finish with the worst record in the NFL?No won
- Will the Cincinnati Bengals finish with the worst record in the NFL?No won
- Will the Cleveland Browns finish with the worst record in the NFL?No won
- Will the Jacksonville Jaguars finish with the worst record in the NFL?No won
- Will the New England Patriots finish with the worst record in the NFL?No won
- Will the New York Giants finish with the worst record in the NFL?No won
- Will the New York Jets finish with the worst record in the NFL?No won
- Will the Tennessee Titans finish with the worst record in the NFL?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.