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CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Astralisof 3DMAX, Astralis
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$623,889
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$626,316

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $623,889 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 544 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x21ec…5348backed 3DMAX29c40,000$11,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,599.9372453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Astralis71c34,390$24,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,988.8623839.9%95 W · 143 L-11.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac47…d234backed 3DMAX30c33,700$10,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,123.613735.1%13 W · 24 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-20.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed 3DMAX14c33,577$4,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,625.8582842.9%355 W · 473 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Astralis72c30,659$22,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,608.6366151.9%343 W · 318 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbed2…d00bbacked 3DMAX12c27,949$3,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,447.195750.9%29 W · 28 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a92…6941backed 3DMAX12c22,173$2,756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,756.311547%54 W · 61 L+9.9wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked Astralis70c16,350$11,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,90538358.7%225 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6902…b4cabacked 3DMAX30c15,967$4,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,79025751.8%133 W · 124 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed 3DMAX31c15,558$4,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,823.0667041.8%280 W · 390 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa69d…509bbacked Astralis71c14,739$10,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,274.3119757.4%113 W · 84 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked Astralis69c14,200$9,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,401.9922754.6%124 W · 103 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7193…ae51backed Astralis73c9,999$7,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,678.6329858.4%174 W · 124 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked 3DMAX30c9,776$2,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,970.115,19455.2%2,869 W · 2,325 L+131.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Astralis70c8,588$5,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,618.0835850.8%182 W · 176 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked Astralis69c8,267$5,704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,562.6279752.7%420 W · 377 L+27.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed 3DMAX12c8,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96030740.4%124 W · 183 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Astralis71c7,861$5,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,279.6319645.4%89 W · 107 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked 3DMAX29c7,578$2,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,197.6836152.6%190 W · 171 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked 3DMAX23c7,553$1,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,758.363,26950.3%1,644 W · 1,625 L+98.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe02f…3d4cbacked Astralis71c7,369$5,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,138.1217053.5%91 W · 79 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0caf…91adbacked Astralis74c6,607$4,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,715.8612465.3%81 W · 43 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed 3DMAX29c6,044$1,763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,763.0535236.4%128 W · 224 L-1.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed 3DMAX30c6,000$1,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,829.9976350.6%386 W · 377 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked 3DMAX30c6,000$1,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,829.9837140.2%149 W · 222 L-16.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed 3DMAX29c6,000$1,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,739.9772846.3%337 W · 391 L-1.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86af…f384backed Astralis75c5,400$4,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,326.129764.9%63 W · 34 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed 3DMAX13c5,104$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.4655843.2%241 W · 317 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5768…d072backed Astralis71c4,850$3,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,392.551770.6%12 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Astralis71c4,844$3,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,404.727653.3%147 W · 129 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f30…3aeebacked Astralis71c4,742$3,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,367.648453.6%45 W · 39 L-6.8wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-13.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe59c…4da7backed Astralis71c4,716$3,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,367.7815264.5%98 W · 54 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed 3DMAX21c4,714$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.716,54042.9%2,805 W · 3,735 L-81.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-22%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked 3DMAX19c4,321$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.9929127.5%80 W · 211 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x236b…26b7backed 3DMAX30c4,299$1,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,306.9733044.5%147 W · 183 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16bc…decabacked 3DMAX30c4,151$1,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,245.420228.7%58 W · 144 L-12.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-25.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7150…0a2bbacked 3DMAX30c4,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-47.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Astralis70c4,000$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,199.9928738%109 W · 178 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed Astralis70c3,946$2,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,183.823144.2%102 W · 129 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf60…c978backed 3DMAX0c3,819$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8233…df36backed 3DMAX15c3,636$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.89250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51c7…98aabacked Astralis71c3,421$2,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$992.1225561.6%157 W · 98 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked 3DMAX22c3,140$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.68,13350.3%4,091 W · 4,042 L+169.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb364…f1e3backed 3DMAX31c3,140$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.281346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-18.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4e5…d034backed Astralis64c3,100$1,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,115.9913044.6%58 W · 72 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91fb…a67cbacked 3DMAX13c3,050$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.5540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-48.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e8f…57c7backed 3DMAX31c3,000$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9302751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Astralis72c3,000$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8402965.5%19 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked 3DMAX14c2,913$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.9332832.3%106 W · 222 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked 3DMAX19c2,866$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.62,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed 3DMAX29c2,850$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.471,44433.4%482 W · 962 L+39.6wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24d3…30abbacked 3DMAX29c2,807$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.917425.7%19 W · 55 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-28.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3fcf…056bbacked Astralis68c2,766$1,881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$885.1711354.9%62 W · 51 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed 3DMAX30c2,595$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.5458435.8%209 W · 375 L+1.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff52…8ccfbacked Astralis70c2,455$1,719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Astralis69c2,454$1,693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$760.5953545%241 W · 294 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked 3DMAX22c2,337$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.871,39848.4%676 W · 722 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed 3DMAX29c2,200$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64598840.7%402 W · 586 L+12.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked 3DMAX30c2,187$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.1336242.8%155 W · 207 L-0.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed 3DMAX30c2,129$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.619954.3%108 W · 91 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7044…2eb6backed Astralis69c2,102$1,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.6815857.6%91 W · 67 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeae5…0720backed Astralis70c2,069$1,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.271127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-57.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x153a…9d6dbacked 3DMAX29c2,051$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.1913247.7%63 W · 69 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5674…8b14backed 3DMAX13c2,026$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.3936742.8%157 W · 210 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed 3DMAX20c2,017$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.755,95437.7%2,247 W · 3,707 L+77.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb9b…6df8backed Astralis70c2,000$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60055845.7%255 W · 303 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed 3DMAX29c2,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58027852.9%147 W · 131 L+13.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed 3DMAX30c1,957$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.1380439.7%319 W · 485 L-2.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde4c…1ab9backed 3DMAX14c1,951$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.13333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-57.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74fb…c40fbacked 3DMAX13c1,677$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.99714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-68.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed Astralis62c1,675$1,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.0142341.8%177 W · 246 L-0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0698…b91dbacked 3DMAX30c1,664$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.1215736.9%58 W · 99 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c63…3cbbbacked Astralis73c1,652$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.447065.5%308 W · 162 L+0.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2fe…71d6backed 3DMAX30c1,599$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.729048.9%44 W · 46 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ffb…df76backed Astralis69c1,580$1,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.7925452.4%133 W · 121 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Astralis72c1,531$1,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.175,46631.5%1,722 W · 3,744 L-400.1wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa2c9…2c23backed Astralis70c1,500$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45020160.7%122 W · 79 L-14.4wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-7.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f4b…5345backed Astralis70c1,500$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.994365.1%28 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked 3DMAX32c1,499$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.617143.9%75 W · 96 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked 3DMAX24c1,482$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.73,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec7b…917ebacked 3DMAX13c1,466$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.5528340.3%114 W · 169 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c6d…8371backed Astralis72c1,450$1,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3991100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1393…ba33backed 3DMAX31c1,438$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.7517047.1%80 W · 90 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x972f…65bdbacked Astralis70c1,403$982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.8639157.5%225 W · 166 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b5…1212backed 3DMAX33c1,400$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick55cpaid-62.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe41f…d9dcbacked Astralis71c1,387$983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.9566250.3%333 W · 329 L-15.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b87…6a47backed Astralis73c1,348$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.8713059.2%77 W · 53 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed 3DMAX30c1,340$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40212426.6%33 W · 91 L-10.9wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-24.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed 3DMAX24c1,300$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.954,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7cb…4088backed 3DMAX27c1,285$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.385347.2%25 W · 28 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f61…67ebbacked 3DMAX7c1,280$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.633135.5%11 W · 20 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21f3…1c32backed 3DMAX12c1,279$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.371533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-9.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dd6…e33abacked Astralis80c1,239$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.671353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbec5…8f77backed 3DMAX17c1,235$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.4313030.8%40 W · 90 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-18.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb53a…e694backed 3DMAX22c1,210$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.4413238.6%51 W · 81 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc6e…fa6fbacked 3DMAX32c1,201$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.6716248.1%78 W · 84 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43ff…a491backed 3DMAX29c1,200$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3489554.7%52 W · 43 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e85…3015backed Astralis69c1,152$796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.78563.5%54 W · 31 L+9.2wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+35%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdff0…f573backed Astralis69c1,138$785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.734146.6%159 W · 182 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked 3DMAX30c1,125$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.4242440.3%171 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.