TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Astralisof 3DMAX, Astralis
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$451,223
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$552,683

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $451,223 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 382 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked 3DMAX25c29,279$7,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,459.063,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6adc…bebabacked 3DMAX42c23,240$9,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,649.1113633.1%45 W · 91 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Astralis58c15,332$8,877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,454.925842.2%109 W · 149 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd20f…2f35backed Astralis63c9,357$5,886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,470.548750.6%44 W · 43 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Astralis61c8,287$5,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,227.376058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdd58…18f9backed Astralis59c7,396$4,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,038.732254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+24.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked 3DMAX20c7,094$1,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,421.222,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed 3DMAX27c6,785$1,817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,817.256,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c70…b25ebacked Astralis61c5,917$3,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,302.162458.3%14 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick69cpaid-18.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x25ac…3e47backed 3DMAX73c5,555$4,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,054.98564.7%55 W · 30 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked 3DMAX58c5,049$2,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,914.8844957.5%258 W · 191 L-19.7wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-5.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked 3DMAX20c4,798$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.292,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c8c…dc9ebacked Astralis79c4,528$3,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.16560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf94f…9adabacked Astralis58c4,474$2,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,860.935267.3%35 W · 17 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf31b…241bbacked 3DMAX23c4,445$1,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.0722927.5%63 W · 166 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked 3DMAX25c4,038$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,003.581,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa80c…5a6dbacked Astralis57c3,905$2,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,679.015759.6%34 W · 23 L-0.3wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked 3DMAX42c3,398$1,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,438.845,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked 3DMAX47c3,193$1,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,505.861,39848.4%676 W · 722 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Astralis70c3,185$2,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940.3132552.6%171 W · 154 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked 3DMAX19c3,078$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.763,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed 3DMAX10c2,926$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.5849941.7%208 W · 291 L+2.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid+17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c2d…dd1ebacked Astralis72c2,869$2,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.2739970.7%282 W · 117 L+38.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+14.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed 3DMAX34c2,733$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.8687047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31d4…a7abbacked 3DMAX36c2,641$941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94116447%77 W · 87 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+18.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed 3DMAX41c2,634$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,090.1475450.5%381 W · 373 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed 3DMAX23c2,596$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.8561837.9%234 W · 384 L-22.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7cf…a603backed Astralis59c2,557$1,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,048.533056.7%17 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed 3DMAX60c2,432$1,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,464.1855043.1%237 W · 313 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed 3DMAX43c2,270$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975.9446949.7%233 W · 236 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed 3DMAX33c2,241$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.2678639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Astralis62c2,225$1,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.2937445.7%171 W · 203 L-29.6wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed 3DMAX55c2,199$1,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,214.5237646.3%174 W · 202 L-17.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0562…18a4backed Astralis46c2,121$967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,153.3520448.5%99 W · 105 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked 3DMAX40c2,106$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840.4275245.5%342 W · 410 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7cf4…20b3backed Astralis56c2,099$1,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$930.9510748.6%52 W · 55 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed 3DMAX36c2,049$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.9149646.6%231 W · 265 L+1.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed 3DMAX40c1,919$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.1260848%292 W · 316 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x490a…1d4bbacked 3DMAX29c1,910$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.1929235.6%104 W · 188 L-11.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d11…99cabacked Astralis58c1,893$1,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$790.52748.1%13 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x568e…6980backed 3DMAX24c1,835$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.63627.8%10 W · 26 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb188…1b06backed 3DMAX54c1,795$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$972.52965.5%19 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+16.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked 3DMAX28c1,679$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.357,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Astralis59c1,646$976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.5181751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5674…8b14backed 3DMAX42c1,633$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.2236742.8%157 W · 210 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3b8…b4d8backed Astralis60c1,625$976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.035151%26 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f40…e1f2backed Astralis47c1,585$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$844.074351.2%22 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+18.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f93…bffabacked Astralis59c1,561$922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.2478963.8%503 W · 286 L-2.5wins0.00per pick64cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4189backed 3DMAX61c1,529$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925.6533452.1%174 W · 160 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed 3DMAX23c1,487$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.285,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked 3DMAX36c1,467$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.3125555.3%141 W · 114 L+1.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Astralis57c1,463$833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.4123243.5%101 W · 131 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x338c…1b33backed Astralis67c1,463$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.6816947.9%81 W · 88 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb53a…e694backed 3DMAX32c1,443$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.3613238.6%51 W · 81 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Astralis63c1,421$888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.684,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e1…d80bbacked 3DMAX43c1,352$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.4111846.6%55 W · 63 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Astralis64c1,276$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.8357358.8%337 W · 236 L+16.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed 3DMAX41c1,261$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.5746749.7%232 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda63…b031backed Astralis76c1,246$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.187755.8%43 W · 34 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed 3DMAX40c1,200$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.1153444.9%240 W · 294 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe843…0699backed Astralis47c1,114$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.4110133.7%34 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-22.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed 3DMAX23c1,049$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.621,27821.9%280 W · 998 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed 3DMAX39c1,049$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.4853746.2%248 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcef4…22e0backed 3DMAX69c1,031$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.867972.2%57 W · 22 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Astralis49c1,026$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.72,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked 3DMAX38c999.99$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38011249.1%55 W · 57 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+20.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Astralis59c999.52$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.813354.5%18 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked Astralis70c999.09$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.7740950.6%207 W · 202 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed 3DMAX27c965.62$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.4433553.4%179 W · 156 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked 3DMAX42c965.2$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.3817148%82 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed 3DMAX42c963.07$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.4646345.6%211 W · 252 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde1f…d634backed 3DMAX52c942$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.845248.1%25 W · 27 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f2e…caf6backed Astralis59c940.6$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.651758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc19e…c764backed 3DMAX43c900$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3872751.9%14 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked 3DMAX11c897.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.522,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked 3DMAX25c826.95$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.135,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed 3DMAX10c820.66$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.075466.7%36 W · 18 L+5.1wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xda32…04a1backed Astralis62c816.6$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.831444.9%141 W · 173 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7069…325bbacked Astralis54c800$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37294645.8%433 W · 513 L+18.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked Astralis64c799.54$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.8331451.6%162 W · 152 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked 3DMAX10c789.13$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.919058.9%53 W · 37 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked 3DMAX36c780.1$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.231,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked 3DMAX28c705.31$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.582,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Astralis68c699.21$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.944648.4%216 W · 230 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe02…be9dbacked Astralis59c682.96$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.0831253.5%167 W · 145 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b2b…6813backed 3DMAX43c673.81$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.742254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb61f…976abacked Astralis75c660.39$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.8814563.4%92 W · 53 L-0.2wins0.00per pick64cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x255f…cd91backed 3DMAX39c660.04$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.428947.2%42 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed 3DMAX29c657.2$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.834,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed 3DMAX60c650.98$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.391,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e76…05aabacked Astralis60c650.67$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.272572%18 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x918e…c0f6backed 3DMAX24c621.33$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.01195.3%1 W · 18 L-3.7wins-0.19per pick25cpaid-91.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4e8f…57c7backed 3DMAX40c610.99$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.392751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed 3DMAX22c599.26$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.6625352.2%132 W · 121 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec7b…917ebacked 3DMAX33c581.62$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.5627740.8%113 W · 164 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked 3DMAX13c564.57$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.2869624%167 W · 529 L+2.2wins0.00per pick24cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef66…f839backed 3DMAX24c559.45$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.5913036.9%48 W · 82 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa75c…99dabacked 3DMAX18c555.69$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.21850%9 W · 9 L+3.2wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+60.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb5ba…06b3backed 3DMAX35c535.74$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.3815045.3%68 W · 82 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3bc…2f60backed 3DMAX36c528.88$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.45543.6%24 W · 31 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.