Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Union Berlin vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0ceae62157aaa905d16a31d0b25b34799f31c2b444e4e06806f275eae04d2c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,063
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,063 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 73c | 4,059$2,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,098.39 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 38c | 3,344$1,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,282.51 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7809…64ccbacked No | 71c | 2,342$1,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 27c | 2,275$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.06 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Yes | 29c | 2,072$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a19…2833backed Yes | 26c | 1,874$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 71c | 1,231$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.68 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No | 68c | 1,088$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.16 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Yes | 29c | 1,034$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e73…e5c1backed Yes | 29c | 1,034$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 71c | 1,002$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.72 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 74c | 679$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.87 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 77c | 599$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.56 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e0…024ebacked No | 71c | 482.01$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.78 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed No | 73c | 462.38$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.76 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed Yes | 31c | 438.52$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.32 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 28c | 408$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.24 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b5…7ba6backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 74c | 363.44$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.97 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 75c | 360.59$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.07 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d0…7b84backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 38cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 60c | 349.01$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.55 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 16c | 316.21$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.81 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2c…dcbbbacked Yes | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…bf48backed Yes | 20c | 250.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4211…e724backed Yes | 28c | 221.43$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 64c | 199.15$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.04 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8450…b5a9backed Yes | 40c | 198.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…e208backed Yes | 30c | 186.67$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 28c | 172$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a6…fa77backed Yes | 28c | 153.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…b0bcbacked Yes | 42c | 149.25$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0613…4d1cbacked Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 28c | 126$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 151 | 34.4%52 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee2…035dbacked Yes | 16c | 122.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…3d44backed Yes | 17c | 120.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes | 17c | 110.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x086f…8bc3backed Yes | 28c | 101$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471b…d632backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf402…df7cbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b9…b28abacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…7ef4backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…600dbacked No | 74c | 94.43$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167c…a88bbacked Yes | 28c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…a852backed Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 88 | 70.5%62 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x609b…5877backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 27c | 74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 37cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0909…91cabacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ea…af23backed Yes | 26c | 65.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 64c | 62.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf0…df85backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x660e…76ccbacked Yes | 29c | 57.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Yes | 27c | 55.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 92 | 43.5%40 W · 52 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…24f0backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 73c | 49.22$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76ba…13d3backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…f85cbacked No | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de1…2d12backed No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 69cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…5088backed No | 68c | 38.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…0852backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 75cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6f…0a65backed No | 75c | 26.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a17…5524backed No | 73c | 26.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 76cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 72c | 15.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -4.4wins | -0.23per pick | 65cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed No | 76c | 13.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf681…3ad1backed No | 74c | 13.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Union Berlin vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2025-12-12?Yes won
- Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-12-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.