TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2025-12-12?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$440,482
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$438,942

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $440,482 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 262 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf0bc…af98backed No71c170,366$120,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120,959.8620%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Yes29c164,690$47,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116,929.799455.3%52 W · 42 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes31c25,374$7,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,480.833945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6ee…697bbacked No70c25,026$17,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,523.014443.2%19 W · 25 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-28.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes31c17,524$5,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,037.4415134.4%52 W · 99 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Yes29c16,667$4,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,833.75954.2%32 W · 27 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes42c12,319$5,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,139.543,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes47c10,367$4,826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,541.5475142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ca8…1a39backed No70c10,000$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,999.69366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+18.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37e0…024ebacked No68c8,836$6,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,008.653534.3%12 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f58…456cbacked Yes32c8,000$2,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,440650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+39.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed No68c7,607$5,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,172.833762.2%23 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7104…afefbacked No70c7,143$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0001346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb90c…9a6abacked No71c6,523$4,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,623.151163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8729…9a8dbacked Yes30c6,000$1,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,1851100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+230.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaab5…aab4backed Yes40c5,177$2,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,113.01425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-37.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c74…bd4ebacked No18c5,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9002254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe84…a309backed No71c4,900$3,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,47910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed No70c4,564$3,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,194.7820%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc632…f0a6backed Yes30c4,100$1,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8701100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1358…1af4backed No69c4,000$2,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,759.98250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked No69c3,500$2,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,41516647%78 W · 88 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No52c3,376$1,759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,759.492,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Yes31c3,226$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,225.8124050.4%121 W · 119 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc89b…451fbacked No69c3,150$2,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,173.49333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-53.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Yes29c3,039$874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,164.4814756.5%83 W · 64 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1e7…3f51backed Yes26c2,644$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,956.563100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+133%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe9c9…4967backed Yes26c2,287$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,692.38425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed No70c2,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.999854.1%53 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x315c…9ad0backed Yes26c1,995$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,476.3333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+28.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63df…36c4backed Yes31c1,935$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,335.48742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+10.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xad24…f606backed Yes26c1,902$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,407.482100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+161.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x88c9…3734backed Yes31c1,850$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,276.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Yes72c1,704$1,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.0955058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xae1e…d204backed No69c1,700$1,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,172.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes31c1,654$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,145.7814157.4%81 W · 60 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d6e…cfbcbacked Yes26c1,653$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,223.222100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick42cpaid+180%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed No68c1,648$1,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,120.5356547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f3b…be48backed No70c1,613$1,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,128.921030%3 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick54cpaid-53.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x835a…688ebacked Yes26c1,610$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,191.42100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick42cpaid+180%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7be0…b619backed Yes26c1,535$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,135.93100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+133%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0dd6…5f62backed No70c1,500$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.792766.7%18 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed No70c1,429$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0004264.3%27 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b19…decbbacked Yes26c1,419$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,050.06366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+74.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4446…1fd0backed No76c1,316$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002882.1%23 W · 5 L+4.0wins+0.14per pick68cpaid+24.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x11fe…e2a0backed No74c1,312$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$970.88250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid+13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes76c1,312$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.955352.8%28 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No33c1,287$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.711346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid+6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7651…5057backed No74c1,277$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$944.98366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6706…cd14backed No74c1,258$931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$930.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5834…f0cbbacked No69c1,250$865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$865683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick70cpaid+19.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46a3…a840backed No74c1,180$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.2650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6601…72ccbacked Yes26c1,076$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+92.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabb0…df22backed Yes26c1,053$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$779.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83c1…32f7backed No27c1,028$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.551936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-1.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes30c1,001$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.910128.7%29 W · 72 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked Yes25c1,000$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7501723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-27.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe140…bb06backed Yes31c1,000$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6901100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b73…77edbacked No74c983$727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.42250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf2b…e30ebacked No74c973$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.02250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick66cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb83b…0cc9backed Yes26c958$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.92333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+28.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb77…b7f7backed No74c957$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x704d…3999backed No74c951$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.74250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick66cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f27…ddcfbacked Yes26c920$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+92.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6562…4e48backed No72c895.59$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.411065.5%72 W · 38 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45bf…a76dbacked No74c888$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36f4…9076backed No74c829$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.46250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Yes45c824.2$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.7219544.6%87 W · 108 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x38d4…e4fabacked No74c818$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab0c…e26bbacked Yes30c800$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5601100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb471…69cdbacked No74c744$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.56250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5942…5641backed Yes26c740$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.62454.2%13 W · 11 L+5.4wins+0.23per pick32cpaid+73.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked No69c732$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.681540%6 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x873a…2066backed No44c726.56$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.0213332.3%43 W · 90 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-37%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No47c711.48$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.3153645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa33…63e6backed No71c704.89$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick64cpaid-26.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa7b7…0adbbacked Yes29c702$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.426154.1%33 W · 28 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+20.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed No70c677.95$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.5410040%40 W · 60 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ba8…3ca8backed No74c677$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.98366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Yes31c645.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.161030%3 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes28c584.01$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.1234342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaef7…a192backed No74c543$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.82333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick67cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2422…28febacked Yes30c540$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3782138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed No70c539.67$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.779451.1%48 W · 46 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x965d…726abacked No74c515$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.120%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed No62c500$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3102948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+23.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Yes29c500$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35516850%84 W · 84 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x227c…ee3fbacked Yes31c500$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick57cpaid+48.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x29d9…8058backed No74c499$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.26250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick66cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ca3…590fbacked Yes31c483.87$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.871656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b6…7906backed Yes26c474$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.762100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick42cpaid+180%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e8f…6b61backed No45c458.8$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.825532.7%18 W · 37 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-23.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed No39c455.85$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.6951136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x272f…a803backed Yes26c425$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+86.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed No71c423$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.3314254.2%77 W · 65 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4cf…d1dcbacked No74c421$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.54366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc82e…3c2cbacked Yes26c403$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.222100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+161.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed No73c399.99$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.9910942.2%46 W · 63 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8f4…8564backed No74c396$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.04250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid+13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8450…b5a9backed Yes69c393.06$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.85366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.