TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Hamburger SV vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$70,377
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$67,607

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,377 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8627…5382backed No75c12,615$9,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,128.682356.5%13 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed No67c9,181$6,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,029.732100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Yes33c9,065$2,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,984.953645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes25c7,293$1,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,823.269851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No69c5,129$3,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,571.262,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b59…13cdbacked No75c4,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000560%3 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick73cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eaa…c521backed Yes27c3,717$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes23c3,600$844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843.831,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Yes24c2,083$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.9238748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No77c1,848$1,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.128241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed No75c1,465$1,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.252429.2%7 W · 17 L-3.5wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdbd2…bc24backed Yes30c1,041$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-25.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Yes23c1,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23027726.4%73 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7250…f52fbacked Yes26c1,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2605425.9%14 W · 40 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4d9…6964backed Yes26c957$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x223f…2050backed No79c902.36$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.442755.6%15 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Yes24c900$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21535856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Yes24c844$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.5630054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa62d…92e0backed Yes24c712.5$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1714920.4%10 W · 39 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Yes23c579.69$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.521,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked No76c511$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.8456951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10ff…5088backed Yes14c490.84$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.71933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-43.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cb4…3a39backed Yes21c476.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa43…22f3backed Yes33c454.55$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+24.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No74c392.98$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.8762452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf95a…d895backed Yes26c384.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+28.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9453…6952backed Yes26c384.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009250%46 W · 46 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6e3…47acbacked Yes24c379.17$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa313…1f26backed Yes12c306.55$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.471926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes25c300$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7516045%72 W · 88 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x814c…7ffabacked Yes25c300$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7519446.4%90 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Yes34c281.89$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.4744655.4%247 W · 199 L+22.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Yes18c265.39$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6924541.6%102 W · 143 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cc5…ee5abacked Yes10c250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255442.6%23 W · 31 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb301…79ddbacked Yes4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+18.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed No65c249.11$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.194533.3%15 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes41c243.88$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.793551.4%18 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc613…6a7fbacked No76c241.12$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.12475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick75cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9271…a28abacked Yes26c238$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.884835.4%17 W · 31 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x004e…90f8backed Yes32c234.69$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753023.3%7 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Yes19c233.73$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.781732.8%268 W · 549 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6ae…afe9backed Yes30c233.33$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No69c211.51$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.533,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe85f…7f69backed Yes24c208.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-3.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b2c…5e10backed Yes24c208.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011250.9%57 W · 55 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fc3…0670backed Yes34c200$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Yes26c192.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506827.9%19 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fbc…bdfbbacked Yes26c192.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick24cpaid+32.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff6b…c91abacked Yes26c185.33$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.19633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8e6…d96bbacked Yes17c180$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.68243.9%36 W · 46 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf08…dea4backed No60c149.02$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.14650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce49…c3b9backed Yes14c140$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1580%4 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.44per pick36cpaid+105.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed No67c136.37$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4576234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee09…1199backed Yes26c113$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.382763%17 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaffe…7140backed Yes26c113$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.384634.8%16 W · 30 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc09…21d0backed Yes27c111.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302934.5%10 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72ab…30fcbacked Yes14c107.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+31%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x639f…6b8dbacked Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247639.5%30 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0497…c5e3backed Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffad…e00bbacked Yes20c99.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78a8…01cbbacked Yes24c99.94$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.99825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3ad…457bbacked No70c98.91$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed No72c86.21$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.2653140.7%216 W · 315 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2944…031abacked Yes25c78.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+40.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes24c70.01$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0442046.4%195 W · 225 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Yes25c68$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1716343.6%71 W · 92 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x576c…f218backed No74c66.15$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.26861.8%42 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8405…2163backed Yes26c63.46$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.518140.3%73 W · 108 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb653…f400backed Yes24c62.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152050%10 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38c4…7c65backed No72c56$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.424555.6%25 W · 20 L-6.3wins-0.14per pick70cpaid-21.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x51e5…da69backed Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.510258.8%60 W · 42 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3108…8a52backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd257…d215backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138517.6%15 W · 70 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7503…18f3backed Yes34c49.24$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.74540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-28.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc253…5800backed Yes27c44.44$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124269%29 W · 13 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+25%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Yes31c42$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.136553.8%35 W · 30 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7253…9190backed Yes30c41.75$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.474153.7%22 W · 19 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No75c33.36$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.363943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4868…c8d1backed No69c28.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.992100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+63.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked No64c26$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.362532%8 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-48.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed No59c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.258541.2%35 W · 50 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ef…ebcabacked No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed No79c18.76$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427554.9%151 W · 124 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb308…840bbacked No77c18.1$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.1612100%12 W · 0 L+3.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xce66…8e63backed No71c16.9$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a84…c4fcbacked No78c15.14$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.4742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-34.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.