MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa8319ef1e04712bf5172d82dcba3e9af6b841d4c696efd487a8954932ff9d31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 46c | 21,886$9,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,905.71 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 50c | 20,000$9,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,975.68 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 65c | 6,341$4,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,121.79 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc8…2f68backed Under | 36c | 3,194$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,044.16 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 53c | 615.26$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.37 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…023abacked Under | 74c | 600$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 35c | 500$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 35c | 494.9$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.69 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked Under | 35c | 351.27$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.33 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45ff…6412backed Under | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 64c | 300$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 55c | 257$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.27 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 58c | 232.68$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.9 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 46c | 207.38$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.43 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 12c | 200$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Under | 54c | 197.56$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.88 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 24c | 132.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 59c | 127.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.08 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 55c | 118$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.9 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 36c | 91.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 60c | 89.27$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.56 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 63c | 82$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 38c | 76.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Under | 48c | 64.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Over | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…6e8dbacked Over | 61c | 57.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Under | 36c | 56.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 515 | 45.2%233 W · 282 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 38c | 56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…4cf8backed Over | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 54.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x787d…aecdbacked Over | 38c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 187 | 48.1%90 W · 97 L | -14.4wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Under | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…4b79backed Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 41c | 32.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed Over | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 250 | 34.8%87 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 65c | 20.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 64c | 15.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York YankeesChicago White Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 12.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.