MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfa5bc4c3af5666c2f65a32fd52e16aae929c12c5b3a3cf825cf32c9318fa2fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Chicago White Sox, New York Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,856
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,856 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Yankees | 62c | 8,255$5,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,134.59 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago White Sox | 37c | 7,720$2,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,878.68 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago White Sox | 52c | 6,370$3,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,085.16 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees | 50c | 3,965$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.89 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed New York Yankees | 50c | 2,069$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028.55 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed New York Yankees | 70c | 399.41$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.77 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed New York Yankees | 45c | 388.88$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Chicago White Sox | 30c | 364.2$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.94 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Chicago White Sox | 37c | 324$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.12 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Chicago White Sox | 37c | 317.4$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.85 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago White Sox | 30c | 156.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.89 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Yankees | 70c | 148.17$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.72 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Chicago White Sox | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Chicago White Sox | 29c | 125.79$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.31 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago White Sox | 22c | 121.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.88 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked New York Yankees | 61c | 100.82$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.74 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked New York Yankees | 58c | 80.97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.01 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed New York Yankees | 65c | 78.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked New York Yankees | 65c | 77.95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…0f76backed Chicago White Sox | 47c | 76.51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.23 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed New York Yankees | 57c | 75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.13 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed New York Yankees | 70c | 74$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Chicago White Sox | 30c | 73.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.35 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34bb…f3e4backed Chicago White Sox | 30c | 66.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed New York Yankees | 47c | 63.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked New York Yankees | 52c | 54.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Chicago White Sox | 32c | 51.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.17 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Chicago White Sox | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9646…d98dbacked Chicago White Sox | 30c | 43.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Chicago White Sox | 29c | 41.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c3a9backed New York Yankees | 66c | 26.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed New York Yankees | 71c | 26.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed New York Yankees | 72c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed New York Yankees | 72c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed New York Yankees | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc70b…d2f2backed New York Yankees | 58c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York YankeesChicago White Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 12.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.