MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x471c84e94303c809cb0e31c92660a6ebd4bde2a99e4053508295abee2a9799f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,599
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 5,310$3,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,915.47 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 66c | 4,582$3,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,035.37 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 2,870$1,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,354.13 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 30c | 1,075$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.42 | 878 | 50.5%443 W · 435 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 19c | 799.99$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.99 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 35c | 767.42$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.83 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 41c | 697.2$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.12 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 38c | 632.54$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.31 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 63c | 402$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.74 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0f…3476backed Over | 63c | 361.14$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.52 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 41c | 326.67$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.93 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 18c | 271.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.72 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 24c | 244.78$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.17 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 42c | 244.01$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.49 | 795 | 55.6%442 W · 353 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 21c | 199$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.21 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 39c | 172.26$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.42 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 24c | 165$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 41c | 149.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.49 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Under | 23c | 148.41$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.41 | 286 | 39.2%112 W · 174 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 37c | 133.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 42c | 121.43$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Under | 60c | 102$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Under | 51c | 90$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 51c | 85.4$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 37c | 80.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.86 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 57c | 74.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 69c | 66.75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.28 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Over | 36c | 56.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad9e…53c2backed Over | 80c | 50.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e11…d36ebacked Under | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Over | 32c | 47.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 75c | 45.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Over | 42c | 38.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…0f76backed Over | 42c | 33.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 42c | 32.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…b68bbacked Over | 69c | 25.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 60c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 1,022 | 50.6%517 W · 505 L | +54.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Over | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed Over | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 250 | 34.8%87 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 71c | 18.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 71c | 15.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York YankeesChicago White Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 12.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.