MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ab16225f9956d6a799ed2d40e96d5cef19d596fd0eef13078952eee95df9804
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 60c | 3,422$2,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,067.09 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 39c | 1,966$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,199.17 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 46c | 786.14$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.28 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 57c | 652.06$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.61 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 39c | 419.81$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.08 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 370.49$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.07 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 39c | 349.61$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.26 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 39c | 265.98$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.4 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 40c | 203.28$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.02 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 40c | 159.8$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.88 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Over | 47c | 136.63$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.66 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 21c | 125.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.55 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 63c | 109.39$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.07 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 28c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 33c | 92.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.44 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 59c | 84.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 54c | 84.05$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 49c | 65.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Under | 17c | 61.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 41c | 53.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Under | 69c | 51.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a5…2fa8backed Under | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 222 | 54.1%120 W · 102 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 54c | 48.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 68c | 41.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…184cbacked Over | 29c | 35.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 284 | 53.9%153 W · 131 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…4b79backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 38c | 31.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Over | 61c | 30.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Under | 43c | 29.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Over | 44c | 29.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 41c | 25.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…32f2backed Over | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 207 | 45.9%95 W · 112 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Under | 75c | 20.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 60c | 20.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.