MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b26d68ebccdcb9c178c0df20fd1d735e3bc1d3c8c5d93af045c0a1bf0da0cb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,393
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,388
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,393 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 52c | 15,000$7,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,230 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 49c | 12,286$5,979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,979.19 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 30c | 5,587$1,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,920.65 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 72c | 5,206$3,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,769.62 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 4,017$2,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,098.97 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Under | 2c | 2,991$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 59c | 680.29$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.51 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 29c | 618.94$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.76 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 55c | 417.52$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.13 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 16c | 333$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.34 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 243.01$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.82 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…0facbacked Over | 64c | 234.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.38 | 125 | 75.2%94 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 21c | 229.31$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.15 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Under | 35c | 181.75$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31db…c25fbacked Under | 59c | 148.66$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.71 | 75 | 68%51 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Under | 71c | 111$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.81 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 36c | 101.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 44c | 99.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.63 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0f…b9d0backed Under | 59c | 97.24$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.37 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 38c | 89.49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.66 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Under | 73c | 66.63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…3503backed Under | 47c | 54.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1587…6f17backed Over | 56c | 54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Under | 57c | 48.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Under | 78c | 44.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 35c | 43.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 33c | 42.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…2de1backed Over | 49c | 38.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 53c | 37.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…6cf7backed Under | 77c | 36.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 252 | 60.7%153 W · 99 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 29c | 34.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Over | 53c | 34.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa31a…d023backed Under | 75c | 33.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 66c | 32.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bac…e59dbacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 53c | 23.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 47c | 23.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f4…918fbacked Over | 50c | 22.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 67c | 20.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Over | 68c | 20.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b07…5f54backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 58c | 19.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.