MLB · resolved market
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2d31bbd12dc4849c433df1cd115ed6f7ae000afdf5a17a6fde4407a014950db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Colorado Rockies, Chicago Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,904
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,916
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,904 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs | 64c | 4,535$2,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,621.57 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Colorado Rockies | 37c | 3,330$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,245.07 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Colorado Rockies | 23c | 2,331$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.2 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Colorado Rockies | 17c | 611.24$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.24 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Chicago Cubs | 53c | 587.38$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.07 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Colorado Rockies | 36c | 466.25$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.28 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Colorado Rockies | 22c | 438$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.36 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Colorado Rockies | 61c | 420.48$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.28 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Chicago Cubs | 39c | 238.9$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.73 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Chicago Cubs | 59c | 237.2$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.69 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Colorado Rockies | 16c | 192.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Chicago Cubs | 50c | 127.58$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.55 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Chicago Cubs | 76c | 126.74$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Chicago Cubs | 70c | 124.54$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Colorado Rockies | 41c | 98.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Colorado Rockies | 61c | 74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Chicago Cubs | 75c | 64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Colorado Rockies | 25c | 64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Chicago Cubs | 77c | 56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Colorado Rockies | 23c | 56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 31.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Chicago Cubs | 53c | 31.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Colorado Rockies | 55c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 289 | 43.3%125 W · 164 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Chicago Cubs | 72c | 24.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Chicago Cubs | 50c | 23.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.