MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe68c56f9b8a83cf0a35299870cbb0f776a978f9e049a7179011b7da6c6a2bd9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 59c | 17,905$10,626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,626.37 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 36c | 15,000$5,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,606.13 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Over | 57c | 14,064$8,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,064.32 | 407 | 53.6%218 W · 189 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 66c | 9,022$5,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,951.82 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 57c | 8,749$5,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,029.29 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 34c | 7,584$2,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,991.7 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 6,102$3,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,067.88 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Over | 37c | 5,522$2,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,478.91 | 191 | 43.5%83 W · 108 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 64c | 4,898$3,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,114.89 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 49c | 2,760$1,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,406.59 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 34c | 1,442$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.93 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb45…0cadbacked Under | 64c | 816$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.24 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 65c | 615.69$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.84 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 31c | 553.8$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.12 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec11…953fbacked Under | 65c | 538.46$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 33c | 515.15$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.15 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 39c | 410.96$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.15 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 23c | 250.7$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.73 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Over | 49c | 245.85$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.02 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 38c | 208.06$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.62 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 68c | 207.02$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Under | 32c | 198.02$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.35 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Under | 59c | 186$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.74 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 35c | 181.86$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.63 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 38c | 148.44$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.12 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 67c | 148$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 33c | 147.07$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.54 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd57d…f5d4backed Over | 37c | 139.47$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.87 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f67…866ebacked Over | 37c | 139.47$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30c…a7a7backed Over | 37c | 137.28$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.28 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe04…a198backed Over | 37c | 134.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.9 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…203abacked Over | 37c | 134.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.65 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f6…f7e6backed Over | 37c | 134.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.14 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…8883backed Over | 37c | 134.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +106.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9632…a379backed Over | 37c | 134.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.24 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Under | 31c | 109.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafae…ca54backed Over | 37c | 92.87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.48 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Under | 58c | 88.21$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.16 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 64c | 88$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.32 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 68c | 83$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 65c | 64.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Over | 33c | 64.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.39 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Under | 63c | 64.59$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1587…6f17backed Over | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0098…71e0backed Over | 33c | 61.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 152 | 52%79 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Over | 31c | 61.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Over | 36c | 55.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…32f2backed Under | 35c | 52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 207 | 45.9%95 W · 112 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 59c | 50.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9176…d962backed Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e11…d36ebacked Under | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 33c | 38.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Under | 62c | 35.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 55c | 32.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Over | 60c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Over | 46c | 30.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfb…f1b7backed Over | 47c | 29.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 319 | 63%201 W · 118 L | +27.5wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf051…900ebacked Under | 55c | 25.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a6…252abacked Over | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 53c | 24.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…5ed1backed Under | 63c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 242 | 63.6%154 W · 88 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 74c | 20.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.