UFC · resolved market
O/U 4.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc28fa66ba54a62be1ae81ca2d1f3f97f3d98bdd5fd621bbeebe2a694000b4ac4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,697
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,725
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,697 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 63c | 5,000$3,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,850 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Under | 37c | 4,653$1,722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,721.79 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 61c | 3,136$1,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,223.2 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c6…d14dbacked Under | 39c | 1,301$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.23 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 61c | 833.96$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.79 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 38c | 706.33$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.33per pick | 60cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2c17…3844backed Under | 39c | 663.04$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.59 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ed…4a93backed Over | 63c | 608.08$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.82 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Under | 39c | 368.48$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.71 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…2c7dbacked Under | 38c | 321.95$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 39c | 265.23$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.44 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa24…a75cbacked Under | 42c | 230.7$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.51 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4093…5749backed Under | 39c | 221.01$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb21…3138backed Under | 37c | 193$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb57d…ca49backed Over | 62c | 170.18$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe328…bbb3backed Over | 62c | 164.21$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 37c | 156.03$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.73 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…4b79backed Over | 62c | 108.94$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1193…d9c4backed Under | 37c | 97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f44…bc79backed Under | 38c | 96.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Under | 37c | 95.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ba…0bc3backed Under | 41c | 89.73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b5…a0d7backed Under | 38c | 63.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…a520backed Under | 39c | 62.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7465…caa8backed Over | 65c | 60.59$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 181 | 60.8%110 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 39c | 49.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f3…4e79backed Over | 63c | 48.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 71 | 54.9%39 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…d6d8backed Under | 37c | 48.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 36c | 47.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb7…d613backed Under | 39c | 33.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee62…bc6abacked Under | 39c | 29.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 4.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- UFC Fight Night: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal (Featherweight, Main Card)Aljamain Sterling won
- Will Aljamain Sterling win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Youssef Zalal win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.