TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Raptorsof Cavaliers, Raptors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$550,424
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$635,742

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $550,424 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 245 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9495…9a27backed Raptors51c71,084$35,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,155.3469848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Raptors51c51,071$26,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,024.6243148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Raptors52c46,692$24,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,412.3136549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Cavaliers48c44,595$21,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,405.4527747.7%132 W · 145 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Raptors52c38,848$20,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,647.0417251.7%89 W · 83 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Cavaliers49c31,990$15,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,675.229650.3%149 W · 147 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Raptors52c30,965$16,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,922.64,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfecb…19babacked Raptors52c28,004$14,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,442.0111452.6%60 W · 54 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Cavaliers48c24,325$11,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,675.8366248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Raptors48c22,222$10,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,555.325848.3%28 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3de4…b032backed Cavaliers48c20,000$9,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,6002458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+22.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x84cb…28adbacked Raptors50c19,348$9,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,646.7416846.4%78 W · 90 L-13.2wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe5ef…9e7abacked Cavaliers48c19,071$9,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,154.0325248.4%122 W · 130 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Cavaliers52c16,789$8,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,730.1956646.5%263 W · 303 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Cavaliers48c15,375$7,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,38010949.5%54 W · 55 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Cavaliers48c13,542$6,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,563.591,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Cavaliers50c10,087$5,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000.5193148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb652…2db4backed Cavaliers49c9,845$4,824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,823.8637627.9%105 W · 271 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid+14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Cavaliers49c9,694$4,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,750.0620744.9%93 W · 114 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16bb…8492backed Raptors53c9,157$4,853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,303.862045%9 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2579…9d48backed Cavaliers49c8,687$4,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,256.6419359.6%115 W · 78 L+14.1wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Cavaliers48c8,104$3,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,897.544,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Cavaliers50c7,350$3,682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,681.661,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4370…61aebacked Cavaliers48c7,064$3,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,390.8633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-31.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa084…bb99backed Cavaliers48c6,000$2,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,879.992445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Cavaliers48c5,927$2,837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,837.461,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe49d…ff91backed Cavaliers49c5,924$2,903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,902.765655.4%31 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4244…03a6backed Cavaliers49c5,441$2,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,665.8518349.2%90 W · 93 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf57e…bbd6backed Raptors52c4,826$2,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,316.5410553.3%56 W · 49 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Raptors52c4,000$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,92057950.1%290 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x799c…bcefbacked Raptors57c3,394$1,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,445.2927163.5%172 W · 99 L+0.9wins0.00per pick63cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Raptors52c3,360$1,747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,612.6589853.1%477 W · 421 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6323…9feebacked Cavaliers48c3,313$1,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,597.114441%59 W · 85 L-12.8wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-15.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2cce…6e85backed Cavaliers45c3,001$1,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,356.0522039.1%86 W · 134 L+14.0wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Cavaliers48c3,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,439.981,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Raptors52c3,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,439.9824252.5%127 W · 115 L+18.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0fde…abcebacked Cavaliers49c2,987$1,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,463.793641.7%15 W · 21 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Raptors52c2,914$1,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,398.5356453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Cavaliers45c2,810$1,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,252.3855251.3%283 W · 269 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea48…c596backed Cavaliers49c2,759$1,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,338.4118444.6%82 W · 102 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Cavaliers49c2,564$1,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,256.3970246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed Cavaliers48c2,546$1,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,222.029447.9%45 W · 49 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Cavaliers49c2,451$1,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,201.0922036.8%81 W · 139 L+0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab2d…b1aabacked Cavaliers50c2,222$1,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,11129547.5%140 W · 155 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Cavaliers48c2,222$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,066.5644740.7%182 W · 265 L-27.5wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x94d1…0501backed Cavaliers48c2,184$1,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,054.71338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a18…933bbacked Cavaliers46c2,173$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.61633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-45.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x61e8…b283backed Cavaliers48c2,156$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,034.714940.9%61 W · 88 L-11.6wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0d03…9e27backed Cavaliers49c2,129$1,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,043.078532.9%28 W · 57 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb17e…22bebacked Raptors57c2,058$1,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8853852.6%20 W · 18 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+35.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked Raptors55c2,000$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.9928056.8%159 W · 121 L+22.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+50.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Raptors56c1,951$1,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$858.652,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc58d…5a74backed Raptors52c1,918$997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$920.577554.7%41 W · 34 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe802…e465backed Raptors52c1,894$985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$909.045945.8%27 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-15.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Cavaliers47c1,800$846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8462,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c55…97d4backed Raptors58c1,630$952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.587452.7%39 W · 35 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Raptors52c1,600$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7751,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73f3…0d2cbacked Raptors52c1,494$777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717.197054.3%38 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bec…07a8backed Raptors51c1,476$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723.8120744%91 W · 116 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Cavaliers48c1,379$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6621,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2b0…cfa1backed Cavaliers49c1,375$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.731258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+31%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Cavaliers47c1,308$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.646,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54a3…1c90backed Cavaliers47c1,300$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6111145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Cavaliers47c1,100$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51745146.1%208 W · 243 L-10.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e4b…104ebacked Raptors51c1,084$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.313100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+115.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Cavaliers48c1,032$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.1432045.3%145 W · 175 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b42…62afbacked Cavaliers48c1,032$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.175850%29 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fca…9d33backed Cavaliers48c1,009$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.46541.5%27 W · 38 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53cd…60f7backed Raptors51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4901100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Cavaliers47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47066352.6%349 W · 314 L+30.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Cavaliers47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47035049.4%173 W · 177 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe903…6adbbacked Raptors51c999.95$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.987156.3%40 W · 31 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Cavaliers50c994.97$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.472,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1316…48a4backed Cavaliers48c979.66$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.237143.7%31 W · 40 L-8.0wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-19.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfb27…b180backed Raptors52c971.2$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.1811153.2%59 W · 52 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x28ce…979fbacked Cavaliers48c968.8$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.02862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+30.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc43c…e9e8backed Raptors52c933.85$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.253444.1%15 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f2…b422backed Raptors53c913.49$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.3411558.3%67 W · 48 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+15.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked Raptors53c900.62$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.2912451.6%64 W · 60 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed Cavaliers48c848.71$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.3817850%89 W · 89 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57f9…bcd9backed Raptors48c826.36$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.034841.7%20 W · 28 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x89ec…ed41backed Cavaliers48c711.55$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.54825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-47.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x52f9…ad24backed Raptors52c691.4$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.874452.3%23 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Cavaliers47c688.25$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.482,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b59…8599backed Raptors52c684.01$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54c2…7554backed Raptors52c653.69$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.77966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+26%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Cavaliers48c650$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31256043.9%246 W · 314 L-31.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Raptors52c616.68$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.2758740%235 W · 352 L+24.3wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Cavaliers48c599.99$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2851,27747.2%603 W · 674 L-3.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Cavaliers47c595.33$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.821,39946.4%649 W · 750 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcada…f2a3backed Cavaliers49c593.51$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.822352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+15.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Raptors52c560.31$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.9595452.3%499 W · 455 L-17.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfed1…eedbbacked Raptors51c555.53$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.211060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4f9…9419backed Cavaliers44c554.29$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.586341.3%26 W · 37 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Cavaliers48c542.53$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.4120537.1%76 W · 129 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcea6…67adbacked Raptors51c500$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24528448.2%137 W · 147 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e16…b78abacked Raptors50c485$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.52343.5%10 W · 13 L-3.4wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-19.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Cavaliers53c470.58$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.411,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81b0…858cbacked Raptors52c466.92$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.123246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d16…821abacked Cavaliers48c464.22$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.8213441%55 W · 79 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-13.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.