TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Cavaliers vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 107.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,781
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,634

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,781 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4e9b…945abacked Under49c4,060$1,989 inWon+$2,070.384151.2%21 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6157…9fb4backed Over51c3,676$1,875 inLost-$1,874.627963.3%50 W · 29 L+7.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Under50c3,000$1,500 inWon+$1,50087750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6204…0b06backed Over50c2,910$1,455 inLost-$1,4554134.1%14 W · 27 L-5.1wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-27.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc61d…3933backed Over52c2,132$1,114 inLost-$1,113.6917047.6%81 W · 89 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under48c1,500$720 inWon+$7802,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Under51c746.18$381 inWon+$365.631,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under49c744.39$368 inWon+$376.682,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under49c600$294 inWon+$3061,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeea8…0412backed Over51c489.11$249 inLost-$249.4416251.9%84 W · 78 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0351…ab88backed Over49c382.02$187 inLost-$187.191127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.19per pick46cpaid-41%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xae82…faf0backed Under52c304.42$158 inWon+$146.1215849.4%78 W · 80 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x951f…e430backed Over51c264.89$135 inLost-$134.923652.5%124 W · 112 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0928…7200backed Over49c226.98$111 inLost-$111.22560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Under48c213.09$102 inWon+$111.5269848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Under50c209.9$105 inWon+$104.9576247.1%359 W · 403 L+2.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8c2…eef4backed Over48c201.83$97 inLost-$96.887936.7%29 W · 50 L-9.5wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-33.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Over48c200$96 inLost-$9695548.5%463 W · 492 L-3.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f64…ba01backed Over50c100.88$50 inLost-$50.4442740.3%172 W · 255 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b71…80ecbacked Over48c90.83$44 inLost-$43.68545.9%39 W · 46 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0514…def7backed Over49c55.39$27 inLost-$27.143855.3%21 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Under42c46.42$19 inWon+$26.9278639.2%308 W · 478 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x630b…34ffbacked Over49c39.57$19 inLost-$19.399843.9%43 W · 55 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddf2…8bf0backed Over52c37.35$19 inLost-$19.425947.5%28 W · 31 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae45…96b9backed Under53c36.37$19 inWon+$17.140546.9%190 W · 215 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86da…401cbacked Under50c20$10 inWon+$106544.6%29 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.