NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 221.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41baf2b77b52b1788a9caf1b943e05e1343eb2780d693bd2b667a65ea0af63a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 48c | 13,894$6,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,669.09 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…0ff5backed Under | 52c | 12,140$6,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,827.2 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf8…2f4abacked Over | 10c | 8,999$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.85 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19d0…e11cbacked Over | 50c | 4,215$2,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,119.83 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 79c | 3,894$3,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.52 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Under | 55c | 1,756$973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.81 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 49c | 1,721$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.57 | 698 | 48.6%339 W · 359 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b62…728abacked Under | 55c | 1,375$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.23 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Under | 51c | 1,204$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.86 | 492 | 49.8%245 W · 247 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 52c | 861.15$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.88 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23f9…3c2dbacked Over | 45c | 647.89$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.55 | 186 | 43.5%81 W · 105 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 599.98$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.99 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Under | 55c | 588.15$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.67 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 51c | 573.79$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.16 | 320 | 45.3%145 W · 175 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed Over | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 114 | 37.7%43 W · 71 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Over | 45c | 473.1$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.89 | 261 | 31%81 W · 180 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 386.05$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.44 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13b7…dfd8backed Under | 56c | 348.01$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.29 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…2909backed Over | 46c | 314.47$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.66 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 30c | 299.98$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 258 | 40.7%105 W · 153 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 44c | 288.41$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.66 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4b…c865backed Over | 47c | 269.86$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.83 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x635c…5a00backed Under | 55c | 231.81$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.82 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 211 | 47.4%100 W · 111 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 46c | 198.8$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.23 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7987…884abacked Over | 49c | 197.84$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.94 | 258 | 50%129 W · 129 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Under | 56c | 175.23$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.1 | 476 | 51.7%246 W · 230 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33fc…dc88backed Under | 54c | 145.98$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.15 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cee…dfadbacked Under | 71c | 138.39$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.13 | 136 | 55.9%76 W · 60 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8325…6ecbbacked Under | 55c | 135.19$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.84 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 55c | 133.33$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdffd…924fbacked Over | 45c | 128.93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.02 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Under | 52c | 114.61$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.01 | 256 | 57%146 W · 110 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86f3…685cbacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 125 | 58.4%73 W · 52 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Over | 50c | 98.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 477 | 38.2%182 W · 295 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe2…6829backed Over | 45c | 96.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd52f…88fabacked Under | 52c | 93.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2afc…997cbacked Under | 55c | 88.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8983…d301backed Over | 46c | 84.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7961…a812backed Over | 48c | 82.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 46c | 80.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 71c | 74.08$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 376 | 47.3%178 W · 198 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Over | 46c | 72.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 650 | 45.1%293 W · 357 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Under | 52c | 71.83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ea…4013backed Under | 56c | 70.26$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc734…6cf9backed Under | 54c | 70.23$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.29per pick | 53cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 367 | 49.6%182 W · 185 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x561e…3e87backed Over | 45c | 64.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 114 | 40.4%46 W · 68 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 47c | 64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 447 | 47%210 W · 237 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0e…8177backed Under | 56c | 60.85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 52c | 60.21$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Under | 70c | 58.92$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 717 | 52%373 W · 344 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7239…4389backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 437 | 50.1%219 W · 218 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Under | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 395 | 48.4%191 W · 204 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Over | 47c | 48.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 144 | 48.6%70 W · 74 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 46c | 48.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 596 | 50.3%300 W · 296 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 52c | 42.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Under | 71c | 34.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 44c | 29.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 211 | 49.3%104 W · 107 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9184…de17backed Under | 56c | 27.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca6…08ffbacked Under | 52c | 27.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 52c | 26.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 663 | 52.6%349 W · 314 L | +30.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…c208backed Under | 56c | 26.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 522 | 40%209 W · 313 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 221.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Raptors won
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Raptors won
- Brandon Ingram: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Brandon Ingram: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Cavaliers vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 107.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 175.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 177.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 182.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 185.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 188.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 191.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 197.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 205.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 211.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 219.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 220.5Under won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Immanuel Quickley: Points O/U 2.5No won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- James Harden: Points O/U 19.5No won
- James Harden: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- RJ Barrett: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Scottie Barnes: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Scottie Barnes: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Scottie Barnes: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-2.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.