TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Raptorsof Cavaliers, Raptors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,983
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,656

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,983 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Cavaliers47c6,319$2,988 inLost-$2,988.3455251.3%283 W · 269 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x762e…4bf0backed Raptors52c3,484$1,812 inWon+$1,672.495050%25 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Raptors54c999.8$539 inWon+$460.3269848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked Raptors51c970.6$495 inWon+$475.5928056.8%159 W · 121 L+22.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+50.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Raptors49c552.56$271 inWon+$281.823553.6%126 W · 109 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Raptors50c483.06$242 inWon+$241.5314355.9%80 W · 63 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Cavaliers48c403.67$194 inLost-$193.7636248.1%174 W · 188 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeea8…0412backed Raptors53c367.98$195 inWon+$172.9516251.9%84 W · 78 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0351…ab88backed Cavaliers53c336.81$179 inLost-$178.511127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.19per pick46cpaid-41%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf9d…3ea9backed Raptors57c172.36$97 inWon+$74.974358.1%25 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8044…358ebacked Raptors47c127.7$60 inWon+$67.7954951.9%285 W · 264 L-2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3711…7339backed Cavaliers53c91.68$49 inLost-$48.596336.5%23 W · 40 L-9.1wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-24.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xeb91…f1edbacked Raptors53c90.76$48 inWon+$42.664969.4%34 W · 15 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Cavaliers45c73.15$33 inLost-$33.1889850.9%457 W · 441 L+19.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09b5…fd79backed Cavaliers54c72.03$39 inLost-$38.96656.1%37 W · 29 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Cavaliers54c57.38$31 inLost-$31.063,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1cc…28a0backed Raptors48c40.37$19 inWon+$20.9929665.5%194 W · 102 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Cavaliers56c34.17$19 inLost-$19.243,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x573e…e08abacked Cavaliers57c33.99$19 inLost-$19.492733.3%9 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-28.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ffc…b529backed Raptors56c26.83$15 inWon+$11.8837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Raptors43c23.26$10 inWon+$13.261,28323.4%300 W · 983 L-178.2wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-40.2%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.