TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Raptorsof Cavaliers, Raptors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,979
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,776

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,979 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa38a…821dbacked Raptors57c12,115$6,900 inWon+$5,214.6293148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Cavaliers47c7,389$3,469 inLost-$3,468.8869848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Cavaliers38c2,378$892 inLost-$891.8955251.3%283 W · 269 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Cavaliers35c1,208$423 inLost-$422.8461638.5%237 W · 379 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Cavaliers50c1,027$516 inLost-$516.0676653.5%410 W · 356 L+65.5wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+15.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x465a…c619backed Raptors49c969.4$475 inWon+$494.39425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-49%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Cavaliers35c562.87$197 inLost-$197.0152230.3%158 W · 364 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Cavaliers46c487$225 inLost-$224.762,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Raptors52c176.7$92 inWon+$84.5189850.9%457 W · 441 L+19.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0c8…97b4backed Cavaliers50c97$49 inLost-$48.56645.5%30 W · 36 L-9.3wins-0.14per pick60cpaid-27.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x617a…07f8backed Cavaliers50c85.36$43 inLost-$42.682138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Cavaliers35c68.64$24 inLost-$24.039748.5%47 W · 50 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Cavaliers35c54.91$19 inLost-$19.229949.5%49 W · 50 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe692…05e8backed Cavaliers47c29.24$14 inLost-$13.751533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Cavaliers45c25$11 inLost-$11.251,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.