TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,045
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,027

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,045 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x26fc…41dfbacked Yes60c309.2$186 inLost-$185.522161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+20.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed No48c200$96 inWon+$10456050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1995…9921backed Yes52c161.57$84 inLost-$83.971442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed No40c160.99$64 inWon+$96.5920558.5%120 W · 85 L+19.6wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+26.3%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked No40c137.08$55 inWon+$82.2576054.6%415 W · 345 L+56.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+33.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed No47c100.46$47 inWon+$53.141,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed No49c100$49 inWon+$5136749.6%182 W · 185 L+1.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Yes51c97.06$50 inLost-$49.541227.4%113 W · 299 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+94.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40a4…c6a9backed Yes52c73.41$38 inLost-$37.9210246.1%47 W · 55 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed No49c70.16$34 inWon+$35.7841050.7%208 W · 202 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0fd…a91ebacked Yes51c59.57$30 inLost-$30.099353.8%50 W · 43 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x899e…0b80backed Yes53c55.01$29 inLost-$29.151533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick44cpaid+22.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed No46c41.99$19 inWon+$22.6876247.1%359 W · 403 L+2.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2baf…8023backed No49c40$20 inWon+$20.443752.6%230 W · 207 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x378a…a638backed Yes54c36.01$19 inLost-$19.4510144.6%45 W · 56 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ea8…adbabacked No54c35.8$19 inWon+$16.352951.7%15 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4855…6a41backed Yes52c24.37$13 inLost-$12.6210246.1%47 W · 55 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x72a9…44d3backed Yes51c21.35$11 inLost-$10.7928455.3%157 W · 127 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.