MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd425cb507e2b5af16a4ff8dd13c1fe4192bc282e7c38c3436c155cb54a4bf1dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Cincinnati Reds, New York Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,623
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed New York Yankees | 50c | 10,000$4,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,997.22 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 6,079$3,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,039.46 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 3,638$1,819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,819.04 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 74c | 579.27$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.8 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed New York Yankees | 25c | 510.3$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.28 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Yankees | 34c | 431.39$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.96 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 38c | 285.7$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed Cincinnati Reds | 72c | 271.38$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.38 | 228 | 67.1%153 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked New York Yankees | 24c | 226$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed New York Yankees | 46c | 217.44$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.79 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 190$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.97 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 146.93$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.8 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked New York Yankees | 43c | 110.08$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked New York Yankees | 44c | 92.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a0…c52bbacked New York Yankees | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…000fbacked New York Yankees | 46c | 68.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaba6…6c81backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Cincinnati Reds | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…4b79backed New York Yankees | 49c | 40.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 31.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York YankeesCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. New York YankeesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.