MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1603ce1e1f55ea537b5435be49521a3717fe752e96b542dadba40241e947a56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,759
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,779
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,759 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Under | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 51c | 10,000$5,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,903.05 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 9,430$4,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,616.41 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 1,375$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.17 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 61c | 819.26$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.83 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 57c | 598.45$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.46 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 45c | 597.11$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.76 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 41c | 521.96$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.54 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 39c | 407.96$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.04 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 45c | 318.27$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.05 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 50c | 293.88$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.94 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 55c | 251.26$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.31 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1f…9136backed Under | 54c | 240.74$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Over | 58c | 165.02$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.31 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Under | 39c | 152.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 15c | 130.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…7a58backed Under | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8123…f127backed Under | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 16c | 76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…7ad9backed Under | 56c | 71.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…000fbacked Over | 59c | 53.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Under | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 46c | 41.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 59c | 37.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5331…3672backed Under | 41c | 37.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 175 | 40.6%71 W · 104 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Over | 59c | 33.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 51c | 33.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 48c | 31.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…2de1backed Over | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Under | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b4…c19bbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York YankeesCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. New York YankeesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.