MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x116b40d1366dc6661fe59e51cf5363fffb75a795a18ed4c5d915f3db9aca5897
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof New York Yankees, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe216…7448backed New York Yankees | 40c | 1,464$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.77 | 1,219 | 40.4%493 W · 726 L | -33.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 1,437$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.55 | 11,606 | 52.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L | +210.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 751.54$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.59 | 8,654 | 52.6%4,550 W · 4,104 L | +506.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees | 38c | 750.76$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.66 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 448.63$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.97 | 7,046 | 50.5%3,560 W · 3,486 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked New York Yankees | 39c | 396$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.44 | 2,314 | 52.5%1,216 W · 1,098 L | +26.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked New York Yankees | 28c | 320.33$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.46 | 1,150 | 31.7%365 W · 785 L | -95.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 68c | 234$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.89 | 5,172 | 54.6%2,824 W · 2,348 L | +227.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed New York Yankees | 23c | 139.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Cincinnati Reds | 73c | 108.68$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 3,465 | 51.2%1,774 W · 1,691 L | +105.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed New York Yankees | 39c | 90.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked New York Yankees | 42c | 40.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Cincinnati Reds | 70c | 33.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…342ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 68c | 16.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 1,494 | 63.4%947 W · 547 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York YankeesCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. New York YankeesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.