MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeeacf73ffeff2b71dbcb36e8af65c76319b40865a38af41ecc7f936f212fcf4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $156,946
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $156,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,946 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 51c | 80,002$40,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,801.2 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 49c | 80,000$39,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,800 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 51c | 41,589$21,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,210.48 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 49c | 26,854$13,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,695.45 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 48c | 19,048$9,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,853.43 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e05…7720backed Under | 52c | 15,000$7,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,799.95 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed Over | 49c | 8,038$3,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,099.38 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 49c | 3,094$1,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,578.59 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…f62dbacked Over | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.33 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 1,852$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.31 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 50c | 1,497$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.43 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 1,475$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.99 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…023abacked Over | 72c | 1,000$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.4 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under | 53c | 936$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.08 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 42c | 639.2$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.89 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 45c | 602.26$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.13 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 44c | 563.67$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.05 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 46c | 560.87$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 52c | 414$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.28 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 44c | 379.4$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.57 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 43c | 276.55$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.26 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 56c | 275.63$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.27 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 48c | 273$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.96 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74a4…fb64backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 46c | 195.78$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.71 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 43c | 190.01$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.66 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 39c | 186.37$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.34 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 28c | 171$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 72c | 168.17$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 53c | 154.28$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.75 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…7ad9backed Under | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…7a58backed Under | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 51c | 140$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8123…f127backed Under | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2b…fb88backed Under | 59c | 122.69$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.39 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Over | 53c | 112.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.61 | 309 | 34.3%106 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 53c | 110.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.77 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x294b…22d2backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f6…bab8backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 139 | 51.8%72 W · 67 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 53c | 98.89$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.96 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e9…03a5backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4b…c865backed Over | 49c | 95.92$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.92 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 52c | 90$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Over | 48c | 88.75$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Over | 48c | 84.58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.98 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Over | 44c | 79.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 56c | 72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…000fbacked Over | 45c | 69.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.37 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf22…7f19backed Under | 52c | 65.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3c…104bbacked Under | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 209 | 44%92 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…2de1backed Under | 60c | 49.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 77c | 48.83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Under | 28c | 42.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Over | 48c | 41.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43a8…d77fbacked Over | 46c | 39.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 142 | 59.2%84 W · 58 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec11…953fbacked Under | 54c | 37.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Over | 66c | 33.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 267 | 62.2%166 W · 101 L | +43.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 39c | 31.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 52c | 29.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Over | 48c | 25.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Over | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5f…6ee5backed Over | 53c | 23.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…1d99backed Under | 52c | 20.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…8f47backed Under | 53c | 19.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York YankeesCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. New York YankeesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.