TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,403
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,396

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,403 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Under50c5,662$2,830 inWon+$2,831.8411,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over50c5,637$2,817 inLost-$2,817.048,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over35c814.05$284 inLost-$283.6812,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98f3…bf14backed Under55c459.9$252 inWon+$208.153562.9%22 W · 13 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+25.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Under48c232.44$112 inWon+$120.8790446.9%424 W · 480 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf596…4b79backed Under59c164.92$97 inWon+$67.626446.9%30 W · 34 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over44c134$59 inLost-$58.965,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Under47c113.05$53 inWon+$59.832,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over43c88.23$38 inLost-$37.811,14731.6%362 W · 785 L-97.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Under48c87.5$42 inWon+$45.519353.9%104 W · 89 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe134…f6dabacked Under62c64.51$40 inWon+$24.3674657.8%431 W · 315 L-9.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd58d…f0e0backed Over51c56.94$29 inLost-$29.042138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-24.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x56f6…cda7backed Over50c49.51$25 inLost-$24.769347.3%44 W · 49 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x000a…6cf7backed Over53c40.47$21 inLost-$21.4525260.7%153 W · 99 L+17.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc85…aa54backed Over50c36.4$18 inLost-$18.224243%104 W · 138 L-12.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under47c35$16 inWon+$18.551,77758.4%1,037 W · 740 L+91.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa25a…04b7backed Under59c33.9$20 inWon+$13.914546.2%67 W · 78 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Under50c30.55$15 inWon+$15.284,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Under47c28$13 inWon+$14.845,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa05a…4635backed Over52c23$12 inLost-$11.9883053%440 W · 390 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dff…7fecbacked Under75c22.37$17 inWon+$5.629543.2%41 W · 54 L-6.9wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-18.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x87a8…eb35backed Under59c18.03$11 inWon+$7.394050%20 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Under72c16.45$12 inWon+$4.552,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.