MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76ade9773e0505e751586083ad3460616b46fb363a915d4a641db5afcfa07edd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,187
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 43c | 4,987$2,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,840.86 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 3,518$1,649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,649.36 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 57c | 1,715$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.33 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 56c | 1,373$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.35 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 36c | 593.66$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.65 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd854…3d3ebacked Under | 28c | 242.6$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.05 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 36cpaid | +183.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 39c | 184.94$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.21 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…528ebacked Under | 37c | 132.43$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.43 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 52c | 114.01$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 14c | 112$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 64c | 88.75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 76c | 76$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.76 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 68c | 75.53$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 57c | 75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 77c | 59.86$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 53c | 56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 76c | 54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Over | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 160 | 57.5%92 W · 68 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 29c | 44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…8beebacked Under | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 132 | 63.6%84 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 53c | 35.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…8f39backed Over | 32c | 31.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…8379backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db0…5b69backed Under | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -5.7wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -38%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 76c | 13.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 7.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado RockiesBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.