MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bbf3c2208b5bd0016e5a2a1b0ab95a836433dc0f31be30d8564268d85389e4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 65c | 9,663$6,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,401.25 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 35c | 9,180$3,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,212.01 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 54c | 2,875$1,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,538.79 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 66c | 756.92$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.25 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 45c | 711.85$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.82 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 59c | 693.06$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.77 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 18c | 630.15$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.54 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 45c | 573.14$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.34 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Under | 26c | 458.09$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.14 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 69c | 399.33$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.11 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…0adfbacked Under | 68c | 228.67$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.64 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 74c | 221$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.54 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 74c | 207.78$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.76 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 34c | 194.28$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.62 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 22c | 184.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe24b…5142backed Over | 76c | 170$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…8d0bbacked Under | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 35c | 118.54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.05 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 48c | 102.06$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.07 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…528ebacked Under | 41c | 92.68$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.68 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 52c | 80.7$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0098…71e0backed Under | 68c | 72.6$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 152 | 52%79 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 39c | 48.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 26c | 47.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 66c | 45.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 68c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Under | 41c | 36.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 68c | 34.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed Under | 67c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ac…427fbacked Over | 76c | 25.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x982c…0d6ebacked Under | 66c | 22.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba6e…bc14backed Under | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…4c78backed Over | 77c | 22.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…822dbacked Under | 67c | 16.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado RockiesBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 7.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.