NHL · resolved market
Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc037edc668b7222a9b64b46740147529cc89f806d7f9e77d7b68535a936531e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,764
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,977
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,764 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 42c | 5,514$2,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,174.07 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…9858backed Over | 41c | 4,569$1,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,695.55 | 291 | 46.7%136 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 59c | 4,491$2,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,639.65 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 61c | 2,282$1,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.46 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 58c | 1,731$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.73 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 60c | 1,715$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028.91 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e70…14babacked Under | 58c | 1,263$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.36 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Under | 36c | 1,192$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.05 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…6df9backed Under | 53c | 1,135$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 57c | 628.86$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.33 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 16c | 624.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.71 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab75…9190backed Under | 47c | 516.09$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 49c | 489.57$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.75 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 48c | 427.87$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.62 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 45c | 403.45$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.15 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 40c | 382.5$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.5 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Under | 57c | 373.99$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.56 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 56c | 361.95$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.45 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 54c | 325.58$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.56 | 155 | 60%93 W · 62 L | +13.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…600ebacked Over | 42c | 319.64$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.49 | 270 | 44.4%120 W · 150 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce3…07b5backed Under | 71c | 286.86$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Over | 46c | 234.86$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.83 | 261 | 54%141 W · 120 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 58c | 232.5$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.85 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 41c | 232.44$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.14 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Over | 34c | 190.68$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.57 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96ca…5a71backed Under | 55c | 175.54$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.33 | 554 | 46.4%257 W · 297 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8af8…adc5backed Over | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Under | 54c | 147.78$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.7 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 69c | 147.04$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 67c | 144.68$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.07 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 43c | 130.73$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.51 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…bd04backed Under | 58c | 130.35$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.61 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 33c | 127.97$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.17 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d7…3ed2backed Over | 42c | 114.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Over | 42c | 114.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.64 | 110 | 54.5%60 W · 50 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 46c | 104.38$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Under | 66c | 103.26$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.95 | 283 | 40.3%114 W · 169 L | -24.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 202 | 45%91 W · 111 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 35c | 97.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.96 | 105 | 40%42 W · 63 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 27c | 97.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…e45ebacked Under | 57c | 94$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed Over | 36c | 84.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.23 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5599…326dbacked Under | 58c | 84.03$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 73 | 63%46 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 58c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69b9…a5d5backed Over | 27c | 75.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 58c | 75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 211 | 55.5%117 W · 94 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…4b79backed Under | 69c | 70.65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.23per pick | 49cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…805fbacked Over | 35c | 70.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.52 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +5.5wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Under | 62c | 61.08$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20e5…d3bcbacked Over | 45c | 60.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 53c | 54.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 28c | 51.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5d…d375backed Under | 51c | 50.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Over | 39c | 50.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 393 | 44.8%176 W · 217 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…5ab1backed Under | 59c | 49.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 58c | 48.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6830…e7aabacked Under | 59c | 42.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2e…c5d2backed Under | 58c | 39.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 75 | 80%60 W · 15 L | +10.0wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a09…f316backed Over | 42c | 39.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Over | 41c | 38.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 52c | 38.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 148 | 55.4%82 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16db…8d0fbacked Over | 33c | 36.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 68c | 34.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Under | 58c | 33.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 45c | 33.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 35c | 33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5281…bdd8backed Under | 59c | 29.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6a…959fbacked Under | 41c | 28.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a70…a50bbacked Under | 59c | 25.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43f5…40d0backed Under | 59c | 24.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 60c | 23.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…729cbacked Over | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 71cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5this page
- Penguins vs. FlyersFlyers won
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Flyers (-1.5)Flyers won
- Spread: Flyers (-2.5)Flyers won
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.