NHL · resolved market
Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x224ae34b146f7c814ca0d30a49f4872f047dcf9e0be671d997ab27324dba5c1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,994
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8562…ad77backed Under | 77c | 359$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 62c | 307.78$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.62 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 105 | 40%42 W · 63 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 17c | 283.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 155 | 60%93 W · 62 L | +13.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 15c | 279.91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 24c | 245.42$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 38c | 245.13$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.79 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 32c | 208.33$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Under | 79c | 144.12$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 23c | 129.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 74c | 115.51$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 77c | 105.31$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Over | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 125 | 36%45 W · 80 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Under | 69c | 92.67$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 23c | 73.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Over | 24c | 64.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 24c | 60.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Over | 20c | 50.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 39c | 49.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 413 | 40%165 W · 248 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 67c | 48.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Over | 39c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 36c | 46.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Under | 65c | 45.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Under | 74c | 44.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 37c | 44.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bac…f1a6backed Under | 58c | 44.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked Under | 77c | 25.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 178 | 53.9%96 W · 82 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 74c | 22.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 165 | 46.7%77 W · 88 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…41d1backed Under | 58c | 19.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2f…9123backed Under | 58c | 19.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5887…994ebacked Under | 74c | 18.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 58 | 70.7%41 W · 17 L | +8.6wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac30…b56abacked Under | 80c | 13.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.65 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 75cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 7.5this page
- Penguins vs. FlyersFlyers won
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Flyers (-1.5)Flyers won
- Spread: Flyers (-2.5)Flyers won
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.