NHL · resolved market
Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe306b8d53333320dcc42b09a84514d2d702419236a2a1565bf315442ec9d3813
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,319
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,998
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,319 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Under | 27c | 5,000$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,349.98 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 27c | 4,418$1,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,186.02 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 32c | 3,991$1,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,286.93 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8562…ad77backed Over | 69c | 3,001$2,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 67c | 2,425$1,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.15 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 73c | 2,083$1,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.36 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 73c | 1,789$1,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.95 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 78c | 1,437$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.52 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 73c | 943.46$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.74 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 9c | 911.12$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.64 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 74c | 891.32$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.35 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 28c | 541.61$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.15 | 155 | 60%93 W · 62 L | +13.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8642…47c8backed Over | 73c | 471.68$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.35 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…b93dbacked Over | 73c | 471.68$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.35 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 74c | 457.99$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.76 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 77c | 298.55$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.03 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Over | 72c | 292.66$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.94 | 165 | 46.7%77 W · 88 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 79c | 291.48$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.59 | 105 | 40%42 W · 63 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 5c | 216.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +195.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Over | 73c | 203.54$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.96 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b7…e2b5backed Over | 73c | 202.15$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Under | 40c | 197.96$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.36 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Over | 72c | 175.42$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.12 | 106 | 63.2%67 W · 39 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 19c | 161.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 75c | 140.11$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad9…3cb4backed Over | 73c | 134.77$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac9e…cca3backed Over | 73c | 134.77$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Over | 58c | 125.13$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.55 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdccf…faeabacked Under | 27c | 120.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Over | 73c | 113.14$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Over | 73c | 100.27$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 76c | 97.22$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf342…a5e9backed Under | 26c | 96.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16db…8d0fbacked Over | 58c | 96.16$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Under | 26c | 95.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 20c | 92.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Over | 73c | 84.71$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccf8…b267backed Over | 73c | 83.77$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa06…b075backed Under | 27c | 78.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 76c | 74.54$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 148 | 55.4%82 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 74c | 69.25$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31d…e7a4backed Over | 73c | 67.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 28c | 66.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bac…f1a6backed Over | 58c | 58.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf6…2971backed Over | 73c | 57.95$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Under | 28c | 56.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 32c | 46.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0664…f7f0backed Under | 35c | 41.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5a…724cbacked Over | 73c | 40.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97a7…bb2bbacked Under | 26c | 40.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Under | 34c | 35.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 77c | 35.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…69efbacked Over | 75c | 35.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce9…7115backed Over | 75c | 34.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…560bbacked Under | 35c | 34.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c8…bac9backed Under | 35c | 34.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef2…5584backed Over | 58c | 28.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c8…d506backed Over | 58c | 25.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Over | 73c | 19.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 71c | 18.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Over | 73c | 16.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Over | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 4.5this page
- Penguins vs. FlyersFlyers won
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Flyers (-1.5)Flyers won
- Spread: Flyers (-2.5)Flyers won
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.