NHL · resolved market
Spread: Penguins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5247f41d1d052b9ec2ceb1d8a8bf6aa79556e34edb9c0bf1ca26e4892e8eb1f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Flyersof Penguins, Flyers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,138
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,684
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,138 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x161a…4103backed Penguins | 42c | 1,102$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.18 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3550…54e2backed Penguins | 44c | 1,015$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.98 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -4.3wins | -0.39per pick | 48cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x20e5…d3bcbacked Flyers | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Flyers | 66c | 453.03$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.2 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Flyers | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Penguins | 6c | 243.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Flyers | 68c | 138.12$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.84 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Penguins | 26c | 70.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Penguins | 26c | 62.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Penguins | 30c | 60.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Flyers | 70c | 58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Penguins | 28c | 57.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Penguins | 40c | 47.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Penguins | 40c | 47.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Penguins | 39c | 46.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 174 | 56.3%98 W · 76 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Penguins | 39c | 46.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Penguins | 39c | 46.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 127 | 63.8%81 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…f553backed Penguins | 39c | 32.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Flyers | 60c | 24.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 155 | 60%93 W · 62 L | +13.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)this page
- Penguins vs. FlyersFlyers won
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Flyers (-1.5)Flyers won
- Spread: Flyers (-2.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.