NHL · resolved market
Spread: Flyers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef56fac6904b153503975a2c09868419288af0fadab5559ccc8cfb34db662968
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Flyersof Flyers, Penguins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,808
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Penguins | 69c | 1,197$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.79 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Flyers | 31c | 1,158$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.79 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7193…ae51backed Penguins | 71c | 896.72$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.37 | 63 | 71.4%45 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Flyers | 32c | 643.38$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.02 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…6df9backed Penguins | 52c | 565.45$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Flyers | 69c | 392.38$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.72 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Penguins | 60c | 333$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.49 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Penguins | 34c | 291.6$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 155 | 60%93 W · 62 L | +13.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Penguins | 70c | 221.31$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.2 | 261 | 54%141 W · 120 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Penguins | 70c | 211.44$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.01 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Flyers | 29c | 208.41$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.97 | 311 | 48.2%150 W · 161 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Flyers | 42c | 193.04$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.96 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Penguins | 45c | 175.95$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.02 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa919…65fabacked Penguins | 62c | 156.7$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.74 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Flyers | 35c | 155.72$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.02 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54f8…43c9backed Penguins | 31c | 152.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7c…8eabbacked Penguins | 31c | 152.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…004ebacked Flyers | 23c | 149.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.05 | 155 | 35.5%55 W · 100 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Flyers | 55c | 148.08$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.04 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Penguins | 71c | 124.55$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.43 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Penguins | 55c | 120.66$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.75 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Flyers | 24c | 107.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.52 | 105 | 40%42 W · 63 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e99…99efbacked Penguins | 22c | 106.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Penguins | 73c | 97.05$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe84d…4a1fbacked Penguins | 71c | 90.34$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Flyers | 69c | 84.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 317 | 44.2%140 W · 177 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Flyers | 70c | 83.52$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 1,025 | 40.8%418 W · 607 L | +15.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Flyers | 61c | 80.35$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Flyers | 46c | 78.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.49 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91c6…0b6fbacked Flyers | 30c | 75.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Flyers | 29c | 71.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.98 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Flyers | 43c | 70.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Flyers | 63c | 64.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Flyers | 53c | 62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 393 | 44.8%176 W · 217 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…b839backed Flyers | 69c | 54.54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 450 | 69.3%312 W · 138 L | +51.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Flyers | 70c | 54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 222 | 50.5%112 W · 110 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Flyers | 29c | 53.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05c9…271bbacked Flyers | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…e722backed Flyers | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…5c9cbacked Flyers | 76c | 49.15$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 76cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcac9…47a9backed Flyers | 31c | 48.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Flyers | 44c | 40.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 470 | 24%113 W · 357 L | -44.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Penguins | 33c | 39.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Flyers | 64c | 37.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Flyers | 29c | 35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Flyers | 58c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Penguins | 71c | 27.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 227 | 63.4%144 W · 83 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Flyers | 48c | 23.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 148 | 55.4%82 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Penguins | 71c | 19.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Flyers | 68c | 15.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…e598backed Flyers | 74c | 13.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Flyers (-1.5)this page
- Penguins vs. FlyersFlyers won
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Flyers (-2.5)Flyers won
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.