TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,830
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,822

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,830 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x70dc…1dfdbacked Yes59c6,206$3,690 inLost-$3,689.981957.9%11 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed No40c3,708$1,473 inWon+$2,234.6779650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed No43c1,862$803 inWon+$1,058.841,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9caf…e8bdbacked No42c1,445$601 inWon+$843.7933049.1%162 W · 168 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x036b…ead4backed No42c1,180$499 inWon+$681.521392.3%12 W · 1 L+7.1wins+0.55per pick38cpaid+211.5%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0x556c…93cebacked No44c599.93$264 inWon+$335.9624949%122 W · 127 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb7c…8eabbacked Yes65c464.46$300 inLost-$3008843.2%38 W · 50 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66d3…ac9dbacked Yes58c344.83$200 inLost-$20020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd190…e445backed Yes58c310.34$180 inLost-$1803756.8%21 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52f2…5a5dbacked Yes58c301.76$175 inLost-$175.0217547.4%83 W · 92 L-13.3wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa0fd…a91ebacked Yes56c267.86$150 inLost-$1509353.8%50 W · 43 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Yes55c258.03$142 inLost-$141.9216844%74 W · 94 L-11.8wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xde74…77abbacked No35c250$88 inWon+$162.512642.9%54 W · 72 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf596…4b79backed Yes56c178.57$100 inLost-$1003363.6%21 W · 12 L+4.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+33.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed No72c133.17$96 inWon+$37.2920558.5%120 W · 85 L+19.6wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+26.3%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No35c107.99$38 inWon+$70.1917946.4%83 W · 96 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x342b…d208backed Yes56c98.61$55 inLost-$55.132050%10 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88a2…68a0backed Yes55c90$50 inLost-$49.515351%78 W · 75 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe2b…51debacked Yes56c89.38$50 inLost-$5010247.1%48 W · 54 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68a1…d982backed Yes60c83.38$50 inLost-$5020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb91c…ed66backed No36c79.2$29 inWon+$50.695058%29 W · 21 L+8.2wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+42.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x87c0…244ebacked Yes55c77$42 inLost-$42.355644.6%25 W · 31 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb83b…dc66backed Yes58c74.14$43 inLost-$433638.9%14 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes25c73.94$19 inLost-$18.7818140.3%73 W · 108 L+24.4wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+60.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x607e…a0dbbacked Yes57c55.05$31 inLost-$31.3820%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e44…9d02backed Yes56c53.57$30 inLost-$303850%19 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+18.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4078…7d91backed Yes56c39.29$22 inLost-$225540%22 W · 33 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5eb6…9e4dbacked Yes57c35.25$20 inLost-$206259.7%37 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bd2…aafebacked Yes60c33.33$20 inLost-$202147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb76…0a16backed Yes58c32.76$19 inLost-$1910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83e9…e865backed Yes50c30$15 inLost-$15616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-62.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed No44c27.32$12 inWon+$15.3219555.4%108 W · 87 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb17…3329backed Yes58c24.14$14 inLost-$14944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes55c18.72$10 inLost-$10.314860.1%89 W · 59 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x73ec…9659backed Yes58c18$10 inLost-$10.442055%11 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick59cpaid+0.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 106. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.