TailMyPicks

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UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Daniel Barez vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight, Prelims)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Luis Guruleof Daniel Barez, Luis Gurule
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,140,775
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,355,236

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,140,775 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 323 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4bff…fc26backed Daniel Barez42c677,548$282,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282,224.847454.1%40 W · 34 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+17.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Luis Gurule58c200,000$116,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84,0007853.8%42 W · 36 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Luis Gurule58c165,404$96,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69,402.29240.2%37 W · 55 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Luis Gurule58c150,000$87,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63,00019154.5%104 W · 87 L+14.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Luis Gurule60c107,752$64,603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,148.916244.4%72 W · 90 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed Luis Gurule60c100,000$60,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,0002065%13 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+22.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Daniel Barez40c54,077$21,631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,630.764957.1%28 W · 21 L+4.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+31.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Luis Gurule58c26,000$15,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,9206238.7%24 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Daniel Barez40c13,178$5,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,233.6229133.7%98 W · 193 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf438…9559backed Daniel Barez39c9,999$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,899.698744.8%39 W · 48 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Luis Gurule60c8,901$5,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,586.36738.8%26 W · 41 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Luis Gurule60c8,284$4,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,313.537152.8%196 W · 175 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0c4bbacked Daniel Barez40c8,213$3,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,285.28940.4%36 W · 53 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7358…1d32backed Daniel Barez1c7,620$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007647.4%36 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2256…0386backed Daniel Barez40c7,375$2,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,949.87160.6%43 W · 28 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Daniel Barez11c6,070$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.5815939.6%63 W · 96 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefdd…017fbacked Luis Gurule60c5,831$3,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,332.23943.6%17 W · 22 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9c4…7433backed Luis Gurule59c5,310$3,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,191.56560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb31e…c120backed Daniel Barez41c4,300$1,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,777.2215641%64 W · 92 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Luis Gurule59c4,219$2,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,719.714551%74 W · 71 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Luis Gurule60c4,200$2,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,679.997534.7%26 W · 49 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-26.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0940…3640backed Daniel Barez40c3,803$1,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5211764.7%11 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.20per pick45cpaid+27.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Daniel Barez23c3,766$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.0833132%106 W · 225 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-14.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0267backed Daniel Barez41c3,500$1,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4354630.4%14 W · 32 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Luis Gurule61c3,007$1,819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,187.5720233.7%68 W · 134 L+0.8wins0.00per pick33cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Daniel Barez25c3,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.9213453%71 W · 63 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Daniel Barez30c2,585$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.8427448.2%132 W · 142 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc263…1e83backed Luis Gurule61c2,370$1,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$926.043748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ee…c2c8backed Daniel Barez40c2,338$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$935.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Luis Gurule60c2,222$1,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.828849.7%143 W · 145 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45d5…8faebacked Daniel Barez40c2,038$823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8235446.3%25 W · 29 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Luis Gurule60c2,000$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8003852.6%20 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Daniel Barez39c2,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78026743.8%117 W · 150 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x087b…713ebacked Luis Gurule61c2,000$1,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7801050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xed10…d2e5backed Luis Gurule61c2,000$1,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$779.9922661.9%140 W · 86 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Luis Gurule59c1,883$1,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.0542054%227 W · 193 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2ef…f31ebacked Daniel Barez40c1,875$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.24per pick46cpaid-63.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4c31…5240backed Daniel Barez39c1,804$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7008640.7%35 W · 51 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1cb…2345backed Daniel Barez39c1,800$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.892548%12 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Luis Gurule60c1,698$1,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.338360.2%50 W · 33 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef50…e3bdbacked Luis Gurule61c1,639$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.342646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x360b…982fbacked Luis Gurule58c1,489$868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.238851.1%45 W · 43 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Luis Gurule60c1,477$888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.9726140.6%106 W · 155 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f8c…e275backed Luis Gurule57c1,457$833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.667247.2%34 W · 38 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Daniel Barez40c1,418$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.38636%31 W · 55 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08fe…aedfbacked Luis Gurule61c1,393$845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.312050%10 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Daniel Barez39c1,387$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.4513951.1%71 W · 68 L+10.2wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked Daniel Barez22c1,379$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.9426451.9%137 W · 127 L+23.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+13.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7ce9…61e5backed Daniel Barez42c1,309$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.611050%5 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6ad…1b86backed Luis Gurule59c1,300$761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.55330.2%16 W · 37 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-27.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5fea…78b1backed Luis Gurule64c1,273$816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.77666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed Luis Gurule61c1,231$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.97068.6%48 W · 22 L+8.6wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Luis Gurule59c1,214$722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.7611761.5%72 W · 45 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f1e…f21ebacked Daniel Barez40c1,201$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.4728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.25per pick54cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Daniel Barez40c1,189$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.610035%35 W · 65 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c6…d14dbacked Luis Gurule62c1,156$712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.151855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x767a…8ac5backed Daniel Barez40c1,128$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.2815348.4%74 W · 79 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Luis Gurule61c1,113$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.073444.1%15 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Daniel Barez39c1,100$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.9917752%92 W · 85 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7bc…0f85backed Daniel Barez40c1,070$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.992277.3%17 W · 5 L+4.3wins+0.20per pick58cpaid+36.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9c57…427ebacked Daniel Barez31c1,055$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3301533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-38.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Daniel Barez22c1,051$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.4722438.4%86 W · 138 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84f6…2e01backed Luis Gurule59c989$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c70…b25ebacked Luis Gurule67c956.61$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.8311364.6%73 W · 40 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Daniel Barez21c946.55$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.112540%10 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43e0…8618backed Daniel Barez22c921.96$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008434.5%29 W · 55 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa5b…9b61backed Luis Gurule61c881.13$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.741346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Luis Gurule60c810.28$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.112450%12 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Luis Gurule60c800$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32030964.7%200 W · 109 L+24.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked Daniel Barez40c787.5$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31518644.1%82 W · 104 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4dd1…7918backed Luis Gurule59c772.21$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.6540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Daniel Barez40c750$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30036655.2%202 W · 164 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed99…2677backed Daniel Barez41c731.71$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005461.1%33 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadec…3c7bbacked Daniel Barez40c708$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.313839.5%15 W · 23 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0506…8c6abacked Daniel Barez31c704.28$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.3216746.1%77 W · 90 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52f4…2b15backed Daniel Barez35c701.57$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.3416156.5%91 W · 70 L+10.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+67.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a16…9d73backed Luis Gurule60c695.19$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.571560%9 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x53ad…5bd4backed Luis Gurule59c674.27$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.4220837%77 W · 131 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Luis Gurule76c657.89$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.895431.5%17 W · 37 L-5.8wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1f64…3633backed Daniel Barez40c651.83$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.197263.9%46 W · 26 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Luis Gurule59c648$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.417648.7%37 W · 39 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd353…f6acbacked Luis Gurule61c600$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23425251.2%129 W · 123 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda00…5c4dbacked Luis Gurule60c573.23$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.293756.8%21 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid+12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18b6…babfbacked Luis Gurule60c555.82$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.826339.7%25 W · 38 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed Luis Gurule60c526.73$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.084643.5%20 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked Daniel Barez39c512.82$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20012557.6%72 W · 53 L+11.9wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+27.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe65b…271bbacked Luis Gurule60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2007460.8%45 W · 29 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8644…ad01backed Daniel Barez40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-38.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3155…268ebacked Luis Gurule75c500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.056759.7%40 W · 27 L+7.3wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+21.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa4e1…d80bbacked Luis Gurule60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2004845.8%22 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Luis Gurule61c500$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19535664.6%230 W · 126 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Daniel Barez41c499.97$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.9951533.6%173 W · 342 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8959…68e2backed Luis Gurule61c492.51$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.516142.6%26 W · 35 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+24.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc26a…b715backed Daniel Barez40c485$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19430%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x96ef…cca4backed Luis Gurule60c478.96$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.58250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3f3…3426backed Daniel Barez43c466.32$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20014132.6%46 W · 95 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-8.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x07dd…029bbacked Daniel Barez26c450$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11610351.5%53 W · 50 L+8.8wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+18.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xab92…19e5backed Luis Gurule61c441.97$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.271040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b12…5ee4backed Luis Gurule56c430.23$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.877452.7%39 W · 35 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa24…a75cbacked Daniel Barez40c425$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17010651.9%55 W · 51 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.