UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Daniel Barez vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight, Prelims)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1461342b34d49c0ff2a1113f2b118f6d1aacd9fa8230bf625ede05e045346fda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Luis Guruleof Daniel Barez, Luis Gurule
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,140,775
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,355,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,140,775 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 323 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Daniel Barez | 42c | 677,548$282,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282,224.84 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Luis Gurule | 58c | 200,000$116,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84,000 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Luis Gurule | 58c | 165,404$96,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69,402.2 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Luis Gurule | 58c | 150,000$87,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63,000 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Luis Gurule | 60c | 107,752$64,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43,148.9 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…e406backed Luis Gurule | 60c | 100,000$60,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,000 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Daniel Barez | 40c | 54,077$21,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,630.76 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12ec…41aebacked Luis Gurule | 58c | 26,000$15,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,920 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Daniel Barez | 40c | 13,178$5,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,233.62 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…9559backed Daniel Barez | 39c | 9,999$3,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,899.69 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Luis Gurule | 60c | 8,901$5,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,586.3 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Luis Gurule | 60c | 8,284$4,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,313.5 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0c4bbacked Daniel Barez | 40c | 8,213$3,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,285.2 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7358…1d32backed Daniel Barez | 1c | 7,620$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…0386backed Daniel Barez | 40c | 7,375$2,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,949.8 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Daniel Barez | 11c | 6,070$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.58 | 159 | 39.6%63 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…017fbacked Luis Gurule | 60c | 5,831$3,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,332.2 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c4…7433backed Luis Gurule | 59c | 5,310$3,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,191.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…c120backed Daniel Barez | 41c | 4,300$1,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,777.22 | 156 | 41%64 W · 92 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Luis Gurule | 59c | 4,219$2,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,719.7 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23c8…f293backed Luis Gurule | 60c | 4,200$2,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,679.99 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0940…3640backed Daniel Barez | 40c | 3,803$1,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,521 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Daniel Barez | 23c | 3,766$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.08 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0267backed Daniel Barez | 41c | 3,500$1,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,435 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Luis Gurule | 61c | 3,007$1,819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,187.57 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86e7…613ebacked Daniel Barez | 25c | 3,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.92 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Daniel Barez | 30c | 2,585$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.84 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Luis Gurule | 61c | 2,370$1,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$926.04 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ee…c2c8backed Daniel Barez | 40c | 2,338$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Luis Gurule | 60c | 2,222$1,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.8 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…8faebacked Daniel Barez | 40c | 2,038$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed Luis Gurule | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Daniel Barez | 39c | 2,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x087b…713ebacked Luis Gurule | 61c | 2,000$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…d2e5backed Luis Gurule | 61c | 2,000$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.99 | 226 | 61.9%140 W · 86 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Luis Gurule | 59c | 1,883$1,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.05 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ef…f31ebacked Daniel Barez | 40c | 1,875$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c31…5240backed Daniel Barez | 39c | 1,804$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…2345backed Daniel Barez | 39c | 1,800$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.89 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Luis Gurule | 60c | 1,698$1,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.33 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef50…e3bdbacked Luis Gurule | 61c | 1,639$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.34 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x360b…982fbacked Luis Gurule | 58c | 1,489$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.23 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Luis Gurule | 60c | 1,477$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.97 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8c…e275backed Luis Gurule | 57c | 1,457$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.66 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Daniel Barez | 40c | 1,418$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.3 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08fe…aedfbacked Luis Gurule | 61c | 1,393$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.31 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Daniel Barez | 39c | 1,387$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.45 | 139 | 51.1%71 W · 68 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Daniel Barez | 22c | 1,379$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.94 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce9…61e5backed Daniel Barez | 42c | 1,309$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.61 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ad…1b86backed Luis Gurule | 59c | 1,300$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.5 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Luis Gurule | 64c | 1,273$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.77 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Luis Gurule | 61c | 1,231$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.9 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +8.6wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Luis Gurule | 59c | 1,214$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.76 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1e…f21ebacked Daniel Barez | 40c | 1,201$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Daniel Barez | 40c | 1,189$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.6 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c6…d14dbacked Luis Gurule | 62c | 1,156$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.15 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Daniel Barez | 40c | 1,128$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.28 | 153 | 48.4%74 W · 79 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Luis Gurule | 61c | 1,113$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.07 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Daniel Barez | 39c | 1,100$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.99 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bc…0f85backed Daniel Barez | 40c | 1,070$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.99 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…427ebacked Daniel Barez | 31c | 1,055$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Daniel Barez | 22c | 1,051$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.47 | 224 | 38.4%86 W · 138 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f6…2e01backed Luis Gurule | 59c | 989$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked Luis Gurule | 67c | 956.61$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.83 | 113 | 64.6%73 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Daniel Barez | 21c | 946.55$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.11 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43e0…8618backed Daniel Barez | 22c | 921.96$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 84 | 34.5%29 W · 55 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Luis Gurule | 61c | 881.13$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.74 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Luis Gurule | 60c | 810.28$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.11 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Luis Gurule | 60c | 800$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Daniel Barez | 40c | 787.5$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd1…7918backed Luis Gurule | 59c | 772.21$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Daniel Barez | 40c | 750$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed99…2677backed Daniel Barez | 41c | 731.71$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadec…3c7bbacked Daniel Barez | 40c | 708$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.31 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…8c6abacked Daniel Barez | 31c | 704.28$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.32 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f4…2b15backed Daniel Barez | 35c | 701.57$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.34 | 161 | 56.5%91 W · 70 L | +10.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Luis Gurule | 60c | 695.19$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.57 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed Luis Gurule | 59c | 674.27$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.42 | 208 | 37%77 W · 131 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Luis Gurule | 76c | 657.89$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.89 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Daniel Barez | 40c | 651.83$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.19 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Luis Gurule | 59c | 648$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.41 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Luis Gurule | 61c | 600$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…5c4dbacked Luis Gurule | 60c | 573.23$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.29 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Luis Gurule | 60c | 555.82$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.82 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Luis Gurule | 60c | 526.73$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.08 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc397…bb3bbacked Daniel Barez | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 125 | 57.6%72 W · 53 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Luis Gurule | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8644…ad01backed Daniel Barez | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3155…268ebacked Luis Gurule | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.05 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e1…d80bbacked Luis Gurule | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Luis Gurule | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Daniel Barez | 41c | 499.97$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.99 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8959…68e2backed Luis Gurule | 61c | 492.51$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.51 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc26a…b715backed Daniel Barez | 40c | 485$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…cca4backed Luis Gurule | 60c | 478.96$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f3…3426backed Daniel Barez | 43c | 466.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 141 | 32.6%46 W · 95 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…029bbacked Daniel Barez | 26c | 450$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…19e5backed Luis Gurule | 61c | 441.97$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.27 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…5ee4backed Luis Gurule | 56c | 430.23$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.87 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa24…a75cbacked Daniel Barez | 40c | 425$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Daniel Barez vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight, Prelims)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.