UFC · resolved market
O/U 3.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60fe27e9f69d27e7fa99e2c6a0c9ff64a5aedbb583fc48d22a36bc4eab527b68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,945
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 47c | 15,361$7,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,141.45 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 53c | 12,484$6,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,600.67 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed Under | 52c | 9,628$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,628.45 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 48c | 9,510$4,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,590 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 54c | 8,960$4,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,840.8 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 46c | 6,697$3,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,598.28 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 48c | 1,418$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.25 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd507…a6ddbacked Over | 49c | 1,337$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6496…09d0backed Under | 51c | 938.05$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.18 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 47c | 630.75$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.75 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Under | 49c | 546.82$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.88 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Under | 48c | 517.25$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.97 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Over | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54ea…f74abacked Over | 51c | 395.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5f…6851backed Over | 53c | 377.92$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Under | 47c | 347.92$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.4 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Over | 52c | 304.48$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.33 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Under | 53c | 255.83$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.32 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61b…6559backed Over | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Under | 46c | 239.99$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.8 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 52c | 230.77$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca4…aa92backed Under | 49c | 204.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.29 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 47c | 159.26$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.9 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe71…e854backed Over | 51c | 156.08$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.03 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Under | 48c | 145$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.4 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 52c | 132.69$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Over | 52c | 119.23$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 51c | 109.07$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.62 | 145 | 43.4%63 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c04…a593backed Over | 52c | 107$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfce…5c3ebacked Over | 51c | 103.75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Over | 48c | 103.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…b56bbacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f08…57bcbacked Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 48c | 94.59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Over | 52c | 91$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 50c | 87.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 106 | 64.2%68 W · 38 L | +13.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…6a74backed Over | 51c | 68.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ac…c2d7backed Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…1e5ebacked Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4045…3307backed Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 52c | 57.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d2…a008backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73da…f190backed Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9023…1143backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d12…cc43backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa497…4565backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…3d55backed Over | 53c | 36.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x362a…f541backed Over | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x990a…a9cebacked Over | 52c | 33.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…0df3backed Under | 50c | 30.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa18f…c57abacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d83…8eb4backed Over | 53c | 29.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 47c | 23.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa991…f266backed Over | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb890…72aebacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 3.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Card)Joe Pyfer won
- Will Israel Adesanya win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Joe Pyfer win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.