UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x231ee55735f1cbd385cb331b6dbff311d25d120661aaeaf7c145ef49822b0b34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,936
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,936 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda16…8e5abacked No | 80c | 4,319$3,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.32 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Yes | 35c | 2,241$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.18 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed No | 62c | 1,868$1,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.59 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Yes | 28c | 781.05$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.83 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Yes | 39c | 769.23$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked No | 61c | 764$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.32 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Yes | 37c | 689.29$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.61 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Yes | 37c | 554.99$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.35 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 38c | 522.42$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.08 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked Yes | 4c | 512.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 51c | 473.04$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.79 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6561…e3c2backed Yes | 49c | 440.61$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 38c | 361.98$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.34 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked No | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Yes | 38c | 264$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 63c | 262.85$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.02 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed Yes | 37c | 247.46$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.56 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x465b…41c3backed Yes | 43c | 215.1$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.59 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed No | 62c | 200$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 38c | 189.83$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.02 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…e115backed No | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4696…e741backed No | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…af5dbacked No | 63c | 135.24$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6222…b3e8backed No | 62c | 124$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.12 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe358…6878backed No | 63c | 122.22$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…c3b9backed No | 60c | 104$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c9…c3f0backed No | 62c | 102.06$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5c…9e02backed Yes | 40c | 98.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…5cfebacked Yes | 40c | 98.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1259backed Yes | 40c | 98.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea8…077dbacked Yes | 40c | 98.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b6…d7cebacked Yes | 40c | 98.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -75%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 64c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92c1…6570backed No | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…8b33backed Yes | 40c | 73.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ae…cdb5backed No | 62c | 71.52$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbc…3077backed Yes | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe2…0d54backed No | 61c | 65.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked No | 61c | 50.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c87…6d0ebacked No | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9413…11acbacked No | 54c | 43.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 35c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…dd3abacked No | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3335…f6debacked No | 62c | 32.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fb…6eb5backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 65c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x353c…fcd2backed No | 54c | 30.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1d…4fe9backed No | 65c | 30.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa118…96ffbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 39c | 29.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked No | 61c | 25.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d73…84ccbacked No | 61c | 22.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe4…fa32backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Card)Joe Pyfer won
- Will Israel Adesanya win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Joe Pyfer win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.