UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a89a86c3b5e7eb70141df893b83ef79496a34993105c153682f29b3eb67c90e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,190
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,190 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8e6…d471backed Yes | 40c | 8,012$3,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,202.59 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 60c | 7,500$4,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,000 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70cf…f6cebacked Yes | 42c | 620.15$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked No | 69c | 619.81$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.58 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 31c | 505.04$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.14 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 60c | 406.3$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.9 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…f00cbacked Yes | 37c | 364.23$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc4…fcc5backed No | 70c | 355.45$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.45 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 338.8$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8709…7d3dbacked No | 70c | 314.7$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.7 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 80c | 300$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.46 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed No | 57c | 277.68$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.18 | 117 | 49.6%58 W · 59 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Yes | 30c | 243.25$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.57 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 32c | 200$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed No | 68c | 199.99$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed No | 59c | 150$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa09b…9b09backed No | 69c | 141$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.3 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7161…ad39backed Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -62%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 60c | 124.65$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.43 | 381 | 53.5%204 W · 177 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c7…5d22backed Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2673…5ac9backed Yes | 38c | 114.9$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa44a…88ecbacked No | 68c | 110$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Yes | 31c | 105.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 158 | 39.2%62 W · 96 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…9cfbbacked No | 69c | 105.77$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3b…38dbbacked No | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2074…c64ebacked Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc4…0fd1backed Yes | 37c | 72.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7a…3de0backed No | 69c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d2…4268backed No | 63c | 65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked No | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4045…3307backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda09…16debacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 33c | 46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 356 | 48.6%173 W · 183 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…a55ebacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafd6…4133backed No | 70c | 38.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3922…0670backed No | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed No | 58c | 34.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…3f8ebacked No | 69c | 28.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa936…70b8backed Yes | 40c | 27.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card)Bo Nickal won
- Will Bo Nickal win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will Kyle Daukaus win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.