UFC · resolved market

O/U 1.5 Rounds

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x021c26cf9bee7ee353dbbb3ff8374e033e18d75fc5617eb2a54b741d6b34af33

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jun 14, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $67,593
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $68,061

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,593 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in UFC
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa710…23c4backed Under	43c	36,065$15,508 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20,556.95	162	44.4%72 W · 90 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0297…fcdcbacked Over	3c	19,983$647 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$647.38	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Over	57c	11,154$6,344 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,344	202	48.5%98 W · 104 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8e6…d471backed Over	57c	5,000$2,850 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,850	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-21%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6157…9fb4backed Over	57c	4,386$2,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,500	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.14per pick	57cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over	57c	4,334$2,460 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,460.26	371	52.8%196 W · 175 L	+6.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca4e…f97ebacked Over	56c	3,450$1,930 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,929.99	15	66.7%10 W · 5 L	+1.4wins	+0.10per pick	57cpaid	+28.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7286…d5d0backed Under	44c	3,000$1,320 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,680	7	85.7%6 W · 1 L	+2.8wins	+0.40per pick	45cpaid	+85.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Over	57c	2,500$1,425 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,425	325	45.2%147 W · 178 L	-5.9wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x459e…7dd1backed Under	44c	2,224$979 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,245.63	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5108…29cbbacked Over	57c	1,754$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	161	58.4%94 W · 67 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Under	45c	1,450$654 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$795.5	261	40.6%106 W · 155 L	-9.8wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed Over	57c	1,240$712 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$712.47	131	44.3%58 W · 73 L	+3.7wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed Over	57c	1,014$578 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$577.83	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	-2.6wins	-0.09per pick	56cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x87b6…4ababacked Over	56c	999.99$560 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$559.99	38	52.6%20 W · 18 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over	55c	937.17$518 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$517.73	420	54%227 W · 193 L	+12.9wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Under	44c	900$396 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$504	71	28.2%20 W · 51 L	-6.7wins	-0.09per pick	38cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked Over	57c	687.67$392 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$391.97	39	46.2%18 W · 21 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd8db…ccfbbacked Over	57c	582.87$332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$332.24	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	61cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under	42c	551.86$231 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$321.04	300	39.3%118 W · 182 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x767a…8ac5backed Over	57c	541.95$309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308.91	153	48.4%74 W · 79 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd52d…412dbacked Over	57c	526.32$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	136	47.8%65 W · 71 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf59e…f0bfbacked Over	57c	431.03$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.69	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.9wins	-0.39per pick	59cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x18b6…babfbacked Over	57c	407.89$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232.5	63	39.7%25 W · 38 L	-3.9wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x01ee…6ab0backed Over	56c	357.14$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	17	64.7%11 W · 6 L	+1.6wins	+0.09per pick	55cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked Over	57c	338.98$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.22	31	41.9%13 W · 18 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-15%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Over	60c	300$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	339	48.1%163 W · 176 L	-16.2wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f66…3a50backed Over	67c	299.56$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	54	55.6%30 W · 24 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	59cpaid	-10%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ad5…0914backed Over	57c	273.96$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.16	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.25per pick	59cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8421…0a8bbacked Over	62c	242.02$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	30	43.3%13 W · 17 L	-2.3wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-15%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Under	41c	201.52$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.2	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07cd…fbebbacked Under	44c	181.73$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.77	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x530f…424ebacked Over	56c	181.15$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.24	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c6e…bd19backed Over	56c	178.57$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+1.9wins	+0.19per pick	51cpaid	+37.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xec7f…7d79backed Over	56c	178.57$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.4wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x78ba…0b74backed Over	56c	178.57$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.23per pick	63cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2836…c511backed Over	57c	175.44$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	31	54.8%17 W · 14 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Over	57c	169.49$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.61	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.14per pick	57cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f9…5273backed Over	19c	155.26$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.5	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca85…7453backed Over	57c	154.28$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.94	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-1.2wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fe5…4745backed Over	58c	146.62$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.64	27	44.4%12 W · 15 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Under	40c	140$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84	78	50%39 W · 39 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa09b…9b09backed Under	44c	139.5$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.12	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-1.3wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x86ee…511fbacked Under	44c	139.18$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.94	60	56.7%34 W · 26 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e1f…7661backed Over	57c	125$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.25	37	54.1%20 W · 17 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe065…d1debacked Under	41c	121.95$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.95	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+1.0wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+32%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under	38c	118.85$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.8	291	33.7%98 W · 193 L	-4.6wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6553…aa3cbacked Under	41c	110.95$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.95	35	48.6%17 W · 18 L	-3.1wins	-0.09per pick	58cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8d9…df36backed Over	57c	100$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	146	49.3%72 W · 74 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x47f6…b051backed Over	60c	100$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	36	41.7%15 W · 21 L	-3.7wins	-0.10per pick	52cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x583d…d79bbacked Under	41c	100$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59	48	37.5%18 W · 30 L	-4.1wins	-0.09per pick	46cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Under	40c	91.64$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.98	564	50.5%285 W · 279 L	+6.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacee…afddbacked Over	56c	89.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x312c…0f42backed Over	56c	89.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-2.9wins	-0.57per pick	57cpaid	-100%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8073…b829backed Over	57c	87.72$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ccf…cd14backed Over	57c	87.68$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.98	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.6wins	-0.23per pick	52cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ba0…1803backed Over	57c	86.77$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.46	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.4wins	-0.24per pick	57cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x36dd…bfccbacked Over	57c	86$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.02	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.18per pick	58cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Over	63c	70$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.1	25	40%10 W · 15 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87c0…244ebacked Over	57c	62.84$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.82	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fc…c14abacked Over	57c	61.4$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	48	52.1%25 W · 23 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86f0…0fecbacked Over	57c	57.89$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	+4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Under	44c	57$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.92	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e68…b271backed Over	57c	56.02$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.93	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed Over	57c	55$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.2	92	56.5%52 W · 40 L	+6.4wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6d5…658bbacked Over	57c	52.63$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d0b…0874backed Over	60c	50$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	84	77.4%65 W · 19 L	+11.1wins	+0.13per pick	64cpaid	+18.3%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6f18…d8f5backed Over	56c	46.04$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.84	33	51.5%17 W · 16 L	-2.4wins	-0.07per pick	59cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d87…4e0dbacked Under	45c	44.44$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.44	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+20.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f5a…f31dbacked Over	57c	43.53$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.81	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.14per pick	57cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed Over	57c	35.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	22	50%11 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfa8b…f0b0backed Over	57c	35.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-2.2wins	-0.28per pick	65cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7e1a…0da7backed Over	57c	35.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2953…2ed5backed Over	60c	34$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	136	50%68 W · 68 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f86…4fa9backed Over	61c	29.43$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.95	145	60%87 W · 58 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41c8…424fbacked Over	57c	27.58$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.72	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.15per pick	45cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d3f…7fecbacked Under	52c	27.17$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.96	54	92.6%50 W · 4 L	+20.8wins	+0.39per pick	54cpaid	+361.4%equal weight	79+0.26 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under	41c	26.85$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.84	242	56.2%136 W · 106 L	+20.8wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x74f3…c784backed Over	57c	26.32$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…1fafbacked Over	57c	25$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.25	64	51.6%33 W · 31 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7305…0c7bbacked Over	57c	24.56$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-3.6wins	-0.24per pick	51cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcd61…02d4backed Over	57c	21.61$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.32	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	53cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9157…361ebacked Over	57c	21.05$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.17per pick	58cpaid	+28.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Over	57c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	167	36.5%61 W · 106 L	-7.1wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Over	57c	19.84$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.41	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	59cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1486…cef3backed Over	57c	18.64$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.62	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc58c…4fc0backed Over	56c	18.25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.22	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.30per pick	55cpaid	-48%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
Fight to Go the Distance?No won
O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card)Bo Nickal won
Will Bo Nickal win by KO or TKO?Yes won
Will Kyle Daukaus win by KO or TKO?No won
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
Will the fight be won by submission?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

O/U 1.5 Rounds

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event