UFC · resolved market
Will the fight be won by submission?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44a7836e324815dfbea5edbb6b51b4c78e6a4bf5f3b861736ac71a91976cd4fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,091
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,969
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,091 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 61c | 6,024$3,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,361.29 | 180 | 32.8%59 W · 121 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14eb…2e34backed Yes | 39c | 5,094$2,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,001 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 71c | 620.58$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.27 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x638e…a81bbacked Yes | 40c | 375$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 61c | 372.93$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 383 | 53.3%204 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Yes | 39c | 257.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d36…8f64backed Yes | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c1…5479backed Yes | 39c | 151.42$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.68 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe628…d459backed Yes | 39c | 77.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x573e…e08abacked Yes | 34c | 58.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc49…3626backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…f0bebacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -6.6wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0e23…5bebbacked Yes | 39c | 46.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde70…615fbacked Yes | 39c | 45.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 175 | 24%42 W · 133 L | -22.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…a55ebacked No | 68c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…f194backed Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf051…860ebacked Yes | 38c | 28.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497a…cd8bbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the fight be won by submission?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card)Bo Nickal won
- Will Bo Nickal win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will Kyle Daukaus win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.